Analyzing the Anticipation of Treatments with Data on Notification Dates
AbstractWhen treatments may occur at di®erent points in time, most evaluation methodsassume - implicitly or explicitly - that all the information used by subjects about theoccurrence of a future treatment is available to the researcher. This is often called the\no anticipation" assumption. In reality, subjects may receive private signals aboutthe date when a treatment may start. We provide a methodological and empiricalanalysis of this issue in a setting where the outcome of interest as well as the moment ofinformation arrival (noti¯cation) and the start of the treatment can all be characterizedby duration variables. Building on the \Timing of Events" approach, we show thatthe causal e®ects of noti¯cation and of the treatment on the outcome are identi¯ed.We estimate the model on an administrative data set of unemployed workers in Francewhich provides the date when job seekers receive information from caseworkers abouttheir future treatment status. We ¯nd that noti¯cation has a signi¯cant and positivee®ect on unemployment duration. This result violates the standard \no anticipation"assumption and rules out a \threat e®ect" of training programs in France.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique in its series Working Papers with number 2010-41.
Date of creation: 2010
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- Marco Caliendo & Steffen Künn & Arne Uhlendorff, 2012.
"Marginal Employment, Unemployment Duration and Job Match Quality,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
1222, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Caliendo, Marco & Künn, Steffen & Uhlendorff, Arne, 2012. "Marginal Employment, Unemployment Duration and Job Match Quality," IZA Discussion Papers 6499, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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