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Is the Notification of Monitoring a Threat to the Unemployed? A Regression Discontinuity Approach

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  • Bart Cockx
  • Muriel Dejemeppe

Abstract

In July 2004, the Belgian government intensified monitoring within the Unemployment Insurance scheme. Workers claiming unemployment benefits for more than 13 months are notified that past job-search behavior will be monitored 8 months later. In one region the target group is counselled shortly after the notification, while in others not or only once the monitoring has taken place. We exploit the discontinuity in the treatment assignment at the age of 30 to evaluate the threat effect of the notification on the probability of employment. We find that the effect is heterogeneous and critically depends on whether and when notified workers are counselled.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2007/wp-cesifo-2007-07/cesifo1_wp2042.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2042.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2042

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Keywords: evaluation; monitoring job-search; threat effect; regression-discontinuity;

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References

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  1. Jan Boone & Peter Fredriksson & Bertil Holmlund & Jan C. van Ours, 2007. "Optimal Unemployment Insurance with Monitoring and Sanctions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(518), pages 399-421, 03.
  2. Martin, John P. & Grubb, David, 2001. "What works and for whom: a review of OECD countries' experiences with active labour market policies," Working Paper Series 2001:14, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
  3. Milligan, Kevin & Lemieux, Thomas, 2006. "Incentive Effects of Social Assistance: A Regression Discontinuity Approach," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 2006280e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
  4. Ashenfelter, Orley & Ashmore, David & Deschenes, Olivier, 2000. "Do Unemployment Insurance Recipients Actively Seek Work? Evidence From Randomized Trials in Four U.S. States," IZA Discussion Papers 128, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Abbring, Jaap H. & Berg, Gerard J. van den & Ours, Jan C. van, 1996. "The effect of unemployment insurance sanctions on the transition rate from unemployment to employment," Serie Research Memoranda 0038, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
  6. Bart, COCKX & Jean, RIES, 2004. "The Exhaustion of Unemployment Benefits in Belgium. Does it Enhance the Probability of Employment ?," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2004016, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  7. Edwin Leuven & Hessel Oosterbeek, 2002. "Evaluating the effect of tax deductions on training," Labor and Demography 0205001, EconWPA.
  8. Forslund, Anders & Nordström Skans, Oskar, 2006. "Swedish youth labour market policies revisited," Working Paper Series 2006:6, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
  9. Blundell, Richard William & Costa Dias, Monica & Meghir, Costas & Van Reenen, John, 2003. "Evaluating the Employment Impact of a Mandatory Job Search Programme," CEPR Discussion Papers 3786, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Graversen, B.K. & Ours, J.C. van, 2006. "How to Help Unemployed Find Jobs Quickly: Experimental Evidence from a Mandatory Activation Program," Discussion Paper 2006-126, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  11. Dan A. Black & Jeffrey A. Smith & Mark C. Berger & Brett J. Noel, 2003. "Is the Threat of Reemployment Services More Effective Than the Services Themselves? Evidence from Random Assignment in the UI System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1313-1327, September.
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  13. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 1997. "On two stage least squares estimation of the average treatment effect in a random coefficient model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 129-133, October.
  14. Bruno, CREPON & Muriel, DEJEMEPPE & Marc, GURGAND, 2005. "Counseling the unemployed : does it lower unemployment duration and recurrence ?," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005034, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
  15. David S. Lee & David Card, 2006. "Regression Discontinuity Inference with Specification Error," NBER Technical Working Papers 0322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Lars Pico Geerdsen, 2006. "Is there a Threat Effect of Labour Market Programmes? A Study of ALMP in the Danish UI System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(513), pages 738-750, 07.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Seamus McGuinness & Philip J. O’Connell & Elish Kelly, 2013. "Carrots, No Stick, No Driver: The Employment Impact of Job Search Assistance in a Regime with Minimal Monitoring and Sanctions," Working Papers 201308, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
  2. Maria Bas & Ivan Ledezma, 2007. "Market Access and the Evolution of within Plant Productivity in Chile," CESifo Working Paper Series 2077, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Maibom Pedersen, Jonas & Rosholm, Michael & Svarer, Michael, 2012. "Experimental Evidence on the Effects of Early Meetings and Activation," IZA Discussion Papers 6970, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. McGuinness, Seamus & O'Connell, Philip J. & Kelly, Elish, 2011. "Carrots without Sticks: The Impacts of Job Search Assistance in a Regime with Minimal Monitoring and Sanctions," Papers WP409, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  5. Kelly, Elish & McGuinness, Seamus & O'Connell, Philip J., 2011. "What Can Active Labour Market Policies Do?," Papers EC1, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  6. Cockx, Bart & Dejemeppe, Muriel, 2012. "Monitoring job search effort: An evaluation based on a regression discontinuity design," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 729-737.
  7. Muriel Dejemeppe & Bruno Van der Linden & Andrey Launov & Bart Cockx, 2011. "Monitoring and Sanctions in a Non-Stationary Structural Job-Search Model," 2011 Meeting Papers 501, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. McGuinness, Seamus & O'Connell, Philip J. & Kelly, Elish & Walsh, John R., 2011. "Activation in Ireland: An Evaluation of the National Employment Action Plan," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS20.
  9. Vincent Vandenberghe & Michèle Belot, 2010. "Evaluating the "threat" effects of grade repetition. Exploiting the 2001 reform by the French-speaking Community of Belgium," Investigaciones de Economía de la Educación volume 5, in: María Jesús Mancebón-Torrubia & Domingo P. Ximénez-de-Embún & José María Gómez-Sancho & Greg (ed.), Investigaciones de Economía de la Educación 5, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 9, pages 185-204 Asociación de Economía de la Educación.
  10. Rosholm, Michael, 2008. "Experimental Evidence on the Nature of the Danish Employment Miracle," IZA Discussion Papers 3620, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  11. Svarer, Michael, 2007. "The Effect of Sanctions on the Job Finding Rate: Evidence from Denmark," IZA Discussion Papers 3015, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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