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Long-term effects of a mandatory multistage program: the New Deal for young people in the UK

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Giacomo De Giorgi

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Abstract

The New Deal For Young People is the major welfare-to-work program in the UK. It is a mandatory multistage policy targeted at the 18-24 year old unemployed. This paper investigates the effectiveness of the program in terms of enhancing the (re)employment probability of participant males. I exploit the eligibility rule to identify a suitable counterfactual relying upon a simple regression discontinuity design. By exploiting such a discontinuity I am able to non parametrically identify (Hahn et al., 2001) a local average treatment effect (LATE). While relying upon the non parametric local linear regression method I am able to push forward such a parameter to a "global" dimension, implicitly adding parametric structure. No evidence of possible general equilibrium as well as substitution effects is found by a co- hort specific approach (before and after the program). The main result is that the program enhances employability by about 6-7%.

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Paper provided by Institute for Fiscal Studies in its series IFS Working Papers with number W05/08.

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Length: 29 pp.
Date of creation: Apr 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:05/08

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Related research
Keywords: Labour market policy evaluation; regression discontinuity; non parametric;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy
C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Richard Blundell & Monica Costa Dias & Costas Meghir & John Van Reenen, 2004. "Evaluating the Employment Impact of a Mandatory Job Search Program," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(4), pages 569-606, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Richard Blundell & Monica Costa Dias, 2000. "Evaluation methods for non-experimental data," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 427-468, January. [Downloadable!]
  3. Gerard J. van den Berg & Bas van der Klaauw & Jan C. van Ours, 2004. "Punitive Sanctions and the Transition Rate from Welfare to Work," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 22(1), pages 211-210, January. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. John Van Reenen, 2003. "Active Labour Market Policies and the British New Deal for the Young Unemployed in Context," NBER Working Papers 9576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Lawrence F. Katz, 1996. "Wage Subsidies for the Disadvantaged," NBER Working Papers 5679, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Heckman, James J. & Lalonde, Robert J. & Smith, Jeffrey A., 1999. "The economics and econometrics of active labor market programs," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 31, pages 1865-2097 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Richard Blundell & Monica Costa Dias & Costas Meghir & John Van Reenen, 2001. "Evaluating the employment impact of a mandatory job search assistance program," IFS Working Papers W01/20, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
  8. Jinyong Hahn & Petra Todd & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 1999. "Evaluating the Effect of an Antidiscrimination Law Using a Regression-Discontinuity Design," NBER Working Papers 7131, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hahn, Jinyong & Todd, Petra & Van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2001. "Identification and Estimation of Treatment Effects with a Regression-Discontinuity Design," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 201-09, January.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Mike Brewer, 2007. "Welfare reform in the UK: 1997 - 2007," IFS Working Papers W07/20, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. David S. Lee & Thomas Lemieux, 2009. "Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics," NBER Working Papers 14723, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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