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Experimental Evidence on the Nature of the Danish Employment Miracle

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  • Rosholm, Michael

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Aarhus School of Business)

Abstract

This paper uses a social experiment in labour market policy - providing early and intensive monitoring and programme participation in unemployment spells - to assess the nature of labour market policy effectiveness. The experiment was conducted in two counties in Denmark during the winter of 2005-6. The treatment consisted of a dramatic intensification of labour market policies. The results show that the intensification of labour market policies is highly effective, leading to increases in the exit rate from unemployment ranging from 20 to 40%. When introducing time-varying indicators for the various specific treatments actually prescribed to the unemployed workers, none of those treatments have a positive effect on the exit rate from unemployment, neither during the week in which the activity takes place, nor after the activity is completed. However, when the estimated risk of participating in an activity is included as an explanatory variable, it removes the difference in job-finding rates between treatment and control groups completely in one of the counties, and reduces it dramatically and renders it insignificant in the other county. The interpretation we attach to these results is the following; since individual treatments do not appear to be effective per se, but the risk of treatment is, it must be that the intensification of the policy regime increases the job-finding rate of unemployed workers.

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File URL: http://research.asb.dk/fbspretrieve/3860/wp_08-14
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 08-14.

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Length: 62 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:aareco:2008_014

Contact details of provider:
Postal: The Aarhus School of Business, Prismet, Silkeborgvej 2, DK 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark
Phone: +45 89 486396
Fax: +45 8615 5175
Web page: http://www.asb.dk/departments/nat.aspx
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Keywords: Social experiment; Labour market policy regime; Treatment effect; Duration model;

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References

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  8. Richardson, Katarina & van den Berg, Gerard J., 2002. "The effect of vocational employment training on the individual transition rate from unemployment to work," Working Paper Series 2002:8, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
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  19. Hägglund, Pathric, 2006. "Are there pre-programme effects of Swedish active labour market policies? Evidence from three randomised experiments," Working Paper Series 2006:2, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
  20. Martin, John P. & Grubb, David, 2001. "What works and for whom: a review of OECD countries' experiences with active labour market policies," Working Paper Series 2001:14, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
  21. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. van den Berg, 2003. "The Nonparametric Identification of Treatment Effects in Duration Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1491-1517, 09.
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  1. What keeps unemployment durations short?
    by René Böheim in Econ Tidbits on 2012-11-19 16:07:00
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