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Scylla and Charybdis. Explaining Europe’s Exit from Gold, January 1928- December 1936

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Wolf, Nikolaus

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Abstract

The paper examines the timing of exit from the interwar gold-exchange standard for a panel of European countries, based on monthly data over the period January 1928 - December 1936. I show that the decision of exit from gold can be understood in terms of a trade-off between a quite limited set of factors commonly suggested in the theoretical literature on currency crises. A simple and parsimonious econometric framework that nests various hypotheses allows predicting the very month when a country will exit gold in the 1930s.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6685.

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Date of creation: Feb 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6685

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Related research
Keywords: Europe; Gold-Exchange Standard; Interwar Period;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Growth and Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-

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  3. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan Taylor, 2003. "Sovereign Risk, Credibility and the Gold Standard: 1870-1913 versus 1925-31," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series 1029, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Ritschl, Albrecht & Wolf, Nikolaus, 2003. "Endogeneity of Currency Areas and Trade Blocs: Evidence from the Inter-war Period," CEPR Discussion Papers 4112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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