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Stability of nonlinear AR-GARCH models

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Author Info
MEITZ, Mika
SAIKKONEN, Pentti

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Abstract

This paper studies the stability of nonlinear autoregressive models with conditionally heteroskedastic errors. We consider a nonlinear autoregression of order p (AR(p)) with the conditional variance specified as a nonlinear first order generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH(1,1)) model. Conditions under which the model is stable in the sense that its Markov chain representation is geometrically ergodic are provided. This implies the existence of an initial distribution such that the process is strictly stationary and B-mixing. Conditions under which the stationary distribution has finite moments are also given. The results cover several nonlinear specifications recently proposed for both the conditional mean and conditional variance.

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Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) in its series CORE Discussion Papers with number 2006078.

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Date of creation: 01 Sep 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2006078

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Meitz, Mika & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2006. "Stability of nonlinear AR-GARCH models," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 632, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Dick van Dijk & Timo Teräsvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Bhattacharya, Rabi & Lee, Chanho, 1995. "On geometric ergodicity of nonlinear autoregressive models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 311-315, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2003. "Asymptotic Theory For A Vector Arma-Garch Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(02), pages 280-310, April. [Downloadable!]
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  5. An, H. Z. & Chen, S. G., 1997. "A note on the ergodicity of non-linear autoregressive model," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 365-372, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Rabemananjara, R & Zakoian, J M, 1993. "Threshold Arch Models and Asymmetries in Volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 31-49, Jan.-Marc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Carrasco, Marine & Chen, Xiaohong, 2002. "Mixing And Moment Properties Of Various Garch And Stochastic Volatility Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(01), pages 17-39, February. [Downloadable!]
  9. Lundbergh, Stefan & Terasvirta, Timo, 2002. "Evaluating GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 417-435, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Lu, Zudi & Jiang, Zhenyu, 2001. "L1 geometric ergodicity of a multivariate nonlinear AR model with an ARCH term," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 121-130, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Lee, Chanho, 1998. "Asymptotics of a class of pth-order nonlinear autoregressive processes," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 171-177, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Cline, Daren B. H. & Pu, Huay-min H., 1998. "Verifying irreducibility and continuity of a nonlinear time series," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 139-148, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. M. Lanne & P. Saikkonen, . "Nonlinear GARCH Models for Highly Persistent Volatility," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 2002-20, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
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  15. Mika Meitz & Pentti Saikkonen, 2007. "Ergodicity, mixing, and existence of moments of a class of Markov models with applications to GARCH and ACD models," Economics Series Working Papers 327, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Mika Meitz & Pentti Saikkonen, 2007. "Stability of nonlinear AR-GARCH models," Economics Series Working Papers 328, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Mika Meitz & Pentti Saikkonen, 2008. "Parameter estimation in nonlinear AR-GARCH models," Economics Series Working Papers 396, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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