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Assessing the Sustainability of Credit Growth: the Case of Central and Eastern European Countries

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  • Virginie Coudert
  • Cyril Pouvelle

Abstract

Strong credit growth rates in transition countries may result from a normal catching-up process in a framework of financial development. However, as elsewhere, they can also pertain to a “credit boom”, paving the way to future “credit crunches”. We try to disentangle these two types of situation for the central and eastern European countries (CEECs) by applying a number of methods. First, we consider the gap between current credit and its longterm trend and we find some signs of credit booms, in several CEECs in 2005-2007. Second, we assess the “normal” growth of credit with regard to fundamentals through econometric estimations. Credit growth is also shown to have been excessive in several countries just before the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2009-33.

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Date of creation: Dec 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-33

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Keywords: CREDIT BOOM; TRANSITION; FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT;

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  1. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  3. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Rodrigo Valdes & Oscar Landerretche, 2001. "Lending Booms: Latin America and the World," JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
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Cited by:
  1. Hansen, Niels-Jakob & Sulla, Olga, 2013. "El crecimiento del crédito en América Latina: ¿Desarrollo financiero o boom crediticio?," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 25, pages 51-80.
  2. Lahura, Erick & Chang, Giancarlo & Salazar, Oscar, 2013. "Identificación de Episodios de Auge Crediticio: Una propuesta Metodológica con Fundamentos Económicos," Working Papers, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú 2013-011, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  3. Serwa, Dobromił, 2013. "Identifying multiple regimes in the model of credit to households," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 198-208.
  4. Buncic, Daniel & Martin Melecky, 2013. "Equilibrium Credit: The Reference Point for Macroprudential Supervisors," Economics Working Paper Series, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science 1301, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
  5. Niels-Jakob Harbo Hansen & Olga Sulla, 2013. "Credit Growth in Latin America," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 13/106, International Monetary Fund.

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