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Non-Ricardian Aspects of Fiscal Policy in Chile

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  • Luis Felipe Céspedes
  • Jorge Fornero
  • Jordi Galí

Abstract

This paper examines non-Ricardian effects of government spending shocks in the Chilean economy. We first provide evidence on those effects based on vector autoregressions. We then show that such evidence can be accounted for by a model that features: (i) a sizeable share of non-Ricardian households (i.e. households which do not make use of financial markets and just consume their current labor income); (ii) nominal price and wage rigidities; (iii) an inflation targeting scheme, and (iv) a structural balance fiscal rule that represents the particular Chilean fiscal rule. The model is estimated employing Bayesian techniques. Finally, we use model simulations to demonstrate the countercyclical effects of the Chilean fiscal rule as compared with a zero-deficit rule.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 663.

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Date of creation: Feb 2012
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:663

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References

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  1. Luca Sessa & Libero Monteforte & Lorenzo Forni, 2007. "The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: estimates for the euro area," 2007 Meeting Papers 352, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Robert E. Hall, 2009. "By How Much Does GDP Rise if the Government Buys More Output?," NBER Working Papers 15496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. N. Gregory Mankiw, 2000. "The Savers-Spenders Theory of Fiscal Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 120-125, May.
  4. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," NBER Working Papers 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Jorge A. Fornero, 2010. "Ricardian Equivalence Proposition in a NK DSGE Model for two Large Economies: The EU and the US," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 563, Central Bank of Chile.
  6. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
  8. Coenen, Günter & McAdam, Peter & Straub, Roland, 2008. "Tax reform and labour-market performance in the euro area: A simulation-based analysis using the New Area-Wide Model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2543-2583, August.
  9. Erceg, Christopher J. & Levin, Andrew T., 2003. "Imperfect credibility and inflation persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 915-944, May.
  10. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Employment: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Pablo Pincheira, 2012. "Are Forecast Combinations Efficient?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 661, Central Bank of Chile.
  12. Rodrigo Alfaro & Natán Goldberger, 2012. "Cubrir o no Cubrir: ¿Ese es el Dilema?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 662, Central Bank of Chile.
  13. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
  14. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2000. "Stabilization Policy and the Costs of Dollarization," Departmental Working Papers 200006, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  15. Carlos Garcia & Jorge Restrepo, 2007. "The Case for a Countercyclical Rule-based Fiscal Regime," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv183, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
  16. Margarida Duarte & Alan C. Stockman, 2001. "Rational Speculation and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 8362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Adjemian, Stéphane & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Smets, Frank, 2008. "A quantitative perspective on optimal monetary policy cooperation between the US and the euro area," Working Paper Series 0884, European Central Bank.
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Cited by:
  1. Carlos J. García & Pablo González M. & Antonio Moncado S., 2013. "Macroeconomic Forecasting in Chile: a Structural Bayesian Approach," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 16(1), pages 24-63, April.
  2. José De Gregorio & Felipe Labbé, 2011. "Copper, the Real Exchange Rate and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 640, Central Bank of Chile.
  3. Jimena Zúñiga & Marcelo Capello & Inés Butler & Nester Grión, 2013. "A Cycle-Adjusted Fiscal Rule for Sustainable and More Equitable Growth in Argentina," IDB Publications 82358, Inter-American Development Bank.
  4. Carlos Garcia & Pablo Gonzalez & Antonio Moncado, 2010. "Proyecciones Macroeconómicas en Chile: Una Aproximación Bayesiana," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv262, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.

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