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Investing in Biogas: Timing, Technological Choice and the Value of Flexibility from Inputs Mix

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  • Luca Di Corato
  • Michele Moretto

Abstract

In a continuous-time framework we study the technology and investment choice problem of a continuous co-digestion biogas plant dealing with randomly fluctuating relative convenience of input factor costs. Input factors enter into the productive process together mixed according to a given initial rule. Being inputs relative convenience stochastically evolving, a successive revision of the initial rule may be desirable. Hence, when the venture starts the manager may or may not install a flexible technology allowing for such option. Investment is irreversible and flexibility is costly. The problem is solved determining in the light of future prospects the optimal revision and then playing backward fixing the investment timing rule.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2009/wp-cesifo-2009-07/cesifo1_wp2729.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2729.

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Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2729

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Keywords: factor proportions; technological choice; flexibility; real options; alternative energy source;

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References

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  1. He, Hua. & Pindyck, Robert S., 1989. "Investments in flexible production capacity," Working papers 2102-89., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  2. Alvarez, Luis H.R. & Stenbacka, Rune, 2007. "Partial outsourcing: A real options perspective," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 91-102, February.
  3. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-38, June.
  4. Mæng, H. & Lund, H. & Hvelplund, F., 1999. "Biogas plants in Denmark: technological and economic developments," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-4), pages 195-206, September.
  5. Triantis, Alexander J & Hodder, James E, 1990. " Valuing Flexibility as a Complex Option," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 549-65, June.
  6. Wang, Li Ming & Liu, Li Wen & Wang, Yong Jie, 2007. "Capacity decisions and supply price games under flexibility of backward integration," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1-2), pages 85-96, October.
  7. Michele Moretto & Gianpaolo Rossini, 2008. "Vertical Integration and Operational Flexibility," Working Papers 2008.37, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  8. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-57, April.
  9. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The valuation of options for alternative stochastic processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 145-166.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Michael Funke & Yu-Fu Chen, 2010. "Booms, recessions and financial turmoil: A fresh look at investment decisions under cyclical uncertainty," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 21007, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
  2. Luca Di Corato & Natalia Montinari, 2012. "Flexible Waste Management under Uncertainty," Jena Economic Research Papers 2012-066, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Max-Planck-Institute of Economics.
  3. Di Corato, Luca & Montinari, Natalia, 2014. "Flexible waste management under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(1), pages 174-185.
  4. Wittmann, Nadine & Yildiz, Özgür, 2013. "A microeconomic analysis of decentralized small scale biomass based CHP plants—The case of Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 123-129.
  5. Carrosio, Giovanni, 2013. "Energy production from biogas in the Italian countryside: Policies and organizational models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 3-9.

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