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To Draft or not to Draft? Efficiency, Generational Incidence, and Political Economy of Military Conscription

Author

Listed:
  • Panu Poutvaara
  • Andreas Wagener

Abstract

We study the efficiency and distributional consequences of establishing and abolishing the draft in a dynamic model with overlapping generations, taking into account endogenous human capital formation as well as government budget constraints. The introduction of the draft initially benefits the older generation while harming the young and all future generations. Its Pareto-improving abolition requires levying age-dependent taxes on the young. These being infeasible, abolition of the draft would harm the old. The intergenerational incidence of the gains and losses from its introduction and abolition helps to explain the political allure of the draft.

Suggested Citation

  • Panu Poutvaara & Andreas Wagener, 2005. "To Draft or not to Draft? Efficiency, Generational Incidence, and Political Economy of Military Conscription," CESifo Working Paper Series 1454, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1454
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fisher, Anthony C, 1969. "The Cost of the Draft and the Cost of Ending the Draft," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 239-254, June.
    2. John T. Warner & Beth J. Asch, 2001. "The Record and Prospects of the All-Volunteer Military in the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 169-192, Spring.
    3. Panu Poutvaara & Andreas Wagener, 2011. "The Political Economy of Conscription," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Coyne & Rachel L. Mathers (ed.), The Handbook on the Political Economy of War, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Casey B. Mulligan, 2005. "Conscription as Regulation," American Law and Economics Review, American Law and Economics Association, vol. 7(1), pages 85-111.
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    6. Morten I. Lau & Panu Poutvaara & Andreas Wagener, 2004. "Dynamic Costs of the Draft," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 5(4), pages 381-406, November.
    7. Angrist, Joshua D, 1990. "Lifetime Earnings and the Vietnam Era Draft Lottery: Evidence from Social Security Administrative Records: Errata," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1284-1286, December.
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    9. W. Lee Hansen & Burton A. Weisbrod, 1967. "Economics of the Military Draft," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 81(3), pages 395-421.
    10. Poutvaara, Panu & Wagener, Andreas, 2007. "To draft or not to draft? Inefficiency, generational incidence, and political economy of military conscription," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 975-987, December.
    11. Sandler,Todd & Hartley,Keith, 1995. "The Economics of Defense," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521447287.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Vesa Kanniainen & Staffan Ringbom, 2018. "Security gradient and national defense – the optimal choice between a draft army and a professional army," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 247-267, April.
    2. Thomas Koch & Javier Birchenall, 2016. "Taking versus taxing: an analysis of conscription in a private information economy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 177-199, June.
    3. Peter Berck & Jonathan Lipow, 2011. "Military Conscription and the (Socially) Optimal Number of Boots on the Ground," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 78(1), pages 95-106, July.
    4. Poutvaara, Panu & Wagener, Andreas, 2007. "To draft or not to draft? Inefficiency, generational incidence, and political economy of military conscription," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 975-987, December.
    5. Antonis Adam, 2012. "Military conscription as a means of stabilizing democratic regimes," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 715-730, March.
    6. Puhani, Patrick A. & Sterrenberg, Margret K., 2021. "Effects of Mandatory Military Service on Wages and Other Socioeconomic Outcomes," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-684, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    7. Niklas Potrafke & Felix Roesel, 2020. "Opening hours of polling stations and voter turnout: Evidence from a natural experiment," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 133-163, January.
    8. Panu Poutvaara & Andreas Wagener, 2011. "The Political Economy of Conscription," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Coyne & Rachel L. Mathers (ed.), The Handbook on the Political Economy of War, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Giorgio Pietro, 2013. "Military conscription and university enrolment: evidence from Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(2), pages 619-644, April.
    10. Vesa Kanniainen, 2018. "Defence Commitment and Deterrence in the Theory of War," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 64(4), pages 617-638.
    11. Gonzales-Eiras, Martín & Niepelt, Dirk, 2004. "Sustaining Social Security," Seminar Papers 731, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    12. Panu Poutvaara & Andreas Wagener, 2011. "Ending Military Conscription," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 9(02), pages 36-43, July.
    13. Shu-Yi Liao & Yu-Ying Lin & Wei-Chun Tseng, 2011. "A Random Rationing Mechanism Which Reduces The Risks Of No Son Left At Home," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 265-277.
    14. Patrick L. Warren, 2012. "Volunteer Militaries, The Draft, and Support for War," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 227-258, November.
    15. repec:ces:ifodic:v:9:y:2011:i:2:p:16134080 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Frank Hubers & Dinand Webbink, 2015. "The long-term effects of military conscription on educational attainment and wages," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-16, December.
    17. Perri Tim, 2010. "Deferments and the Relative Cost of Conscription," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-29, November.
    18. Rima Sabban, 2020. "“The Debt of Gratitude”: Mobilizing “Motherhood” in Times of Unrest in the United Arab Emirates," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 101(7), pages 2507-2521, December.
    19. Nikitas Konstantinidis, 2020. "Military conscription, external security, and income inequality: The missing link," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 32(2), pages 312-347, April.
    20. Danko Tarabar & Joshua C. Hall, 2015. "Explaining the Worldwide Decline in Military Conscription: 1970-2010," Working Papers 15-30, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    21. Panu Poutvaara & Andreas Wagener, 2011. "Ending Military Conscription," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 9(2), pages 36-43, 07.
    22. Tim Perri, 2013. "Can a draft induce more human capital investment in the military?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 905-913.
    23. Patrick A. Puhani & Margret K. Sterrenberg, 2022. "Effects of mandatory military and alternative community service on wages and other socioeconomic outcomes," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(3), pages 488-507, August.
    24. Yew-Kwang Ng, 2008. "Why is the Military Draft Common? Conscription and Increasing Returns," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 9(2), pages 373-384, November.
    25. Danko Tarabar & Joshua C. Hall, 2016. "Explaining the worldwide decline in the length of mandatory military service, 1970–2010," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 168(1), pages 55-74, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    draft; conscription; education; intergenerational fairness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H57 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Procurement
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education

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