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Stochastic Trends, Demographics and Demand Systems

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  • Clifford Attfield

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    Abstract

    Techniques for determining the number of stochastic trends generating a set of non-stationary panel data are applied to budget shares for a number of commodity groups from the Family Expenditure Survey (FES) for the UK for the years 1973-2001. It is argued that some stochastic trends in macro data are generated by the aggregation of fixed demographic effects in the micro data. From cross section data, fixed effect coefficients are estimated which incorporate both age and income distribution effects. The estimated coefficients are combined with age proportion variables to form a set of I(1) indices for broad commodity groups which are then incorporated into a system of aggregate demand equations. The equations are estimated and tested in a non-stationary time series setting.

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    File URL: http://www.efm.bris.ac.uk/economics/working_papers/pdffiles/dp04563.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK in its series Bristol Economics Discussion Papers with number 04/563.

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    Length: 26 pages
    Date of creation: Apr 2004
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bri:uobdis:04/563

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    Keywords: Demand Equations; Age Demographics; Stochastic Trends.;

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    References

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    1. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 440, Boston College Department of Economics.
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    6. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
    7. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
    8. James Banks & Richard Blundell & Arthur Lewbel, 1997. "Quadratic Engel Curves And Consumer Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 527-539, November.
    9. Bai, Jushan, 2004. "Estimating cross-section common stochastic trends in nonstationary panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 137-183, September.
    10. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-26, June.
    11. Lewbel, Arthur, 1996. "Aggregation without Separability: A Generalized Composite Commodity Theorem," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 524-43, June.
    12. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
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    Cited by:
    1. Luca Pieroni & Donatella Lanari & Luca Salmasi, 2010. "Food Prices and Overweight Patterns in Italy," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2010_40, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.

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