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Global rebalancing: the macroeconomic impact on the United Kingdom

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Author Info

  • Haberis, Alex

    ()
    (Bank of England)

  • Markovic, Bojan

    ()
    (National Bank of Serbia)

  • Mayhew, Karen

    ()
    (Bank of England)

  • Zabczyk, Pawel

    ()
    (Bank of England)

Abstract

This paper considers the implications for the United States, the United Kingdom and the rest of the world (ROW) of shocks that may contribute to a further reduction in global current account imbalances using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We consider a shock that increases domestic demand in the ROW; a shock that reduces domestic demand in the United States; and a supply shock that raises US productivity relative to other countries. The impact on UK output and inflation depends on the nature of the shock that drives global rebalancing. An increase in domestic demand in the ROW would raise UK exports and output, but would also contribute to increased inflationary pressure in the United Kingdom. Further weakness in US domestic demand is likely to weigh on UK output and inflation. Productivity gains in the United States relative to other countries would worsen the United Kingdom’s current account position, pushing down on output, but would lead to reduced inflationary pressure in the United Kingdom.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 421.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 15 Apr 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0421

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Keywords: Global imbalances; Current account; DSGE models.;

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  1. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
  2. Andrea Ferrero & Mark Gertler & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2008. "Current Account Dynamics and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 13906, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Dirk Muir & Paolo Pesenti, 2005. "Smooth Landing or Crash? Model-Based Scenarios of Global Current Account Rebalancing," NBER Working Papers 11583, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Astley, Mark & Giese, Julia & Hume, Michael & Kubelec, Chris, 2009. "Global imbalances and the financial crisis," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 49(3), pages 178-190.
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Cited by:
  1. Igor Fedotenkov & Lex Meijdam, 2013. "Crisis and Pension System Design in the EU: International Spillover Effects Via Factor Mobility and Trade," De Economist, Springer, vol. 161(2), pages 175-197, June.
  2. Fedotenkov, I., 2012. "Pensions and ageing in a globalizing world. International spillover effects via trade and factor mobility," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-5590843, Tilburg University.

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