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Bargaining power and the Phillips curve: a micro-macro analysis

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  • Marco Jacopo Lombardi
  • Marianna Riggi
  • Eliana Viviano

Abstract

We use a general equilibrium model to show that a decrease in workers' bargaining power amplifies the relative contribution to the output gap of adjustments along the extensive margin of labour utilization. This mechanism reduces the cyclical movements of marginal cost (and inflation) relative to those of the output gap. We show that the relationship between bargaining power and adjustments along the extensive margin (relative to the intensive margin) is supported by microdata. Our analysis relies on panel data from the Italian survey of industrial firms. The Bayesian estimation of the model using euro-area aggregate data covering the 1970-1990 and 1991-2016 samples confirms that the decline in workers' bargaining power has weakened the inflation-output gap relationship.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Marianna Riggi & Eliana Viviano, 2020. "Bargaining power and the Phillips curve: a micro-macro analysis," BIS Working Papers 903, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:903
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Siena, Daniele & Zago, Riccardo, 2022. "Employment protection legislation matters for the Phillips Curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    2. Brand, Claus & Obstbaum, Meri & Coenen, Günter & Sondermann, David & Lydon, Reamonn & Ajevskis, Viktors & Hammermann, Felix & Angino, Siria & Hernborg, Nils & Basso, Henrique & Hertweck, Matthias & Bi, 2021. "Employment and the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 275, European Central Bank.
    3. Johannes Schuffels & Clemens Kool & Lenard Lieb & Tom van Veen, 2022. "Is the Slope of the Euro Area Phillips Curve Steeper than It Seems? Heterogeneity and Identification," CESifo Working Paper Series 10103, CESifo.
    4. Claudio Borio, 2021. "Back to the Future: Intellectual Challenges for Monetary Policy," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 40(4), pages 273-287, December.
    5. Josué Diwambuena & Raquel Fonseca & Stefan Schubert, 2023. "Labor Market Institutions, Productivity, and the Business Cycle: An Application to Italy," Cahiers de recherche / Working Papers 2302, Chaire de recherche sur les enjeux économiques intergénérationnels / Research Chair in Intergenerational Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    low inflation; bargaining power; Phillips curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General

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