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Monetary policy implications of state-dependent prices and wages

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  • Costain, James
  • Nakov, Anton
  • Petit, Borja

Abstract

We study the effects of monetary shocks in a model of state-dependent price and wage adjustment based on “control costs”. Suppliers of retail goods and of labor are both monopolistic competitors that face idiosyncratic productivity shocks and nominal rigidities. Stickiness arises because precise decisions are costly, so agents choose to tolerate small errors in the timing of adjustments. Our simulations are calibrated to microdata on the size and frequency of price and wage changes. Money shocks have less persistent real effects in our state-dependent model than they would a time-dependent framework, but nonetheless we obtain sufficient monetary nonneutrality for consistency with macroeconomic evidence. Nonneutrality is primarily driven by wage rigidity, rather than price rigidity. State-dependent nominal rigidity implies a flatter Phillips curve as trend inflation declines, because nominal adjustments become less frequent, making short-run inflation less reactive to shocks. JEL Classification: E31, D81, C73

Suggested Citation

  • Costain, James & Nakov, Anton & Petit, Borja, 2019. "Monetary policy implications of state-dependent prices and wages," Working Paper Series 2272, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20192272
    Note: 3308697
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    Cited by:

    1. Fabian Eser & Peter Karadi & Philip R. Lane & Laura Moretti & Chiara Osbat, 2020. "The Phillips Curve at the ECB," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(S1), pages 50-85, September.
    2. Shuhei Takahashi, 2018. "Does State-Dependent Wage Setting Generate Multiple Equilibria?," KIER Working Papers 991, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    3. Reichold, Karsten & Wagner, Martin & Damjanovic, Milan & Drenkovska, Marija, 2022. "Sources and Channels of Nonlinearities and Instabilities of the Phillips Curve: Results for the Euro Area and Its Member States," IHS Working Paper Series 40, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    4. Brand, Claus & Obstbaum, Meri & Coenen, Günter & Sondermann, David & Lydon, Reamonn & Ajevskis, Viktors & Hammermann, Felix & Angino, Siria & Hernborg, Nils & Basso, Henrique & Hertweck, Matthias & Bi, 2021. "Employment and the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 275, European Central Bank.
    5. James Costain, 2017. "Costly decisions and sequential bargaining," Working Papers 1729, Banco de España.
    6. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2020. "State-dependent pricing turns money into a two-edged sword," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2019/15, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    7. Guido Ascari & Timo Haber, 2019. "Sticky prices and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy: A minimal test of New Keynesian models," Economics Series Working Papers 869, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Guido Ascari & Timo Haber, 2022. "Non-Linearities, State-Dependent Prices and the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(641), pages 37-57.
    9. Koester, Gerrit & Lis, Eliza & Nickel, Christiane & Osbat, Chiara & Smets, Frank, 2021. "Understanding low inflation in the euro area from 2013 to 2019: cyclical and structural drivers," Occasional Paper Series 280, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    control costs; logit equilibrium; near rationality; nominal rigidity; state-dependent adjustment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games

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