Global Imbalances and Imported Disinflation in the Euro Area
AbstractWe estimate a medium-scale DSGE model for the euro area in an open economy framework. The model includes structural trends on all variables, which allow us to estimate on gross data. We first provide a theoretical balanced growth path consistent with permanent productivity shocks, inflation target changes, and permanent shocks to the openness of the economies. We then define the cycle as the gap between this sustainable trajectory and the gross data, thus our model properly deals with deviations of the trade balance. Finally, we find persistent and strong effects from the asymmetric increase of euro area imports during the last ten years on domestic inflation. From the first quarter of 2000 to the last quarter of 2008, we estimate the contribution of the imbalanced development of international trade on euro area inflation to an average of -0.7%, and on the 3-Month interest rate to an average of -1.4%.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 329.
Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Global Imbalances; Disinflation; Business Fluctuations; Open Economy Macroeconomics.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-06-25 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-06-25 (Central Banking)
- NEP-DGE-2011-06-25 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-EEC-2011-06-25 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2011-06-25 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2011-06-25 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-OPM-2011-06-25 (Open Economy Macroeconomic)
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