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A Note on the Volatilities of the Interest Rate and the Exchange Rate Under Different Monetary Policy Instruments: Mexico 1998-2008

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Author Info
Guillermo Benavides
Carlos Capistrán

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Abstract

To advance our understanding of the mechanisms through which monetary policy affect the economy, in this note we analyze the volatilities of the Mexican short-term interest rate and of the peso-Dollar exchange rate under two monetary policy instruments: a non-borrowed reserves requirement target (the "Corto") and an interest rate target. Using tests for multiple structural changes, we document that both volatilities decreased around the time Banco de México started the transition from the former to the latter. With respect to the volatility transmission from interest rates to exchange rates and vice versa, we find, using a bivariate GARCH model and causality-in-variance tests, bi-causality during the period of the Corto, but no causal relation after the transition started.

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File URL: http://www.banxico.org.mx/publicaciones-y-discursos/publicaciones/documentos-de-investigacion/banxico/%7B24C939F8-5ECF-488F-85EA-FEF8842B3ABC%7D.pdf
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Paper provided by Banco de México in its series Working Papers with number 2009-10.

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Date of creation: Oct 2009
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Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2009-10

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Related research
Keywords: Corto; granger causality; multiple structural breaks; multivariate volatility.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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  3. Carrasco, Marine & Chen, Xiaohong, 2002. "Mixing And Moment Properties Of Various Garch And Stochastic Volatility Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(01), pages 17-39, February. [Downloadable!]
  4. Sébastien Laurent & Luc Bauwens & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2002. "Detecting multiple breaks in financial market volatility dynamics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 579-600. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Hong, Yongmiao, 2001. "A test for volatility spillover with application to exchange rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 183-224, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
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  9. Pantelidis, Theologos & Pittis, Nikitas, 2004. "Testing for Granger causality in variance in the presence of causality in mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 201-207, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. van Dijk, Dick & Osborn, Denise R. & Sensier, Marianne, 2005. "Testing for causality in variance in the presence of breaks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 193-199, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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