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¿La inflación está de vuelta en Sudamérica?: choques exógenos, expectativas y credibilidad de la política monetaria

Author

Listed:
  • Pablo Mendieta

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

  • Sergio Cerezo

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

  • Javier Cossio

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

Abstract

Las expectativas de inflación reaccionaron de diversa forma frente al aumento de la inflación en América Latina hasta mediados de 2008, originada por el incremento de los precios de los combustibles y alimentos. El presente documento expone dos modelos económicos que exploran los factores que determinan las expectativas económicas y la distinción entre choques monetarios y de oferta, destacando que la credibilidad de la política monetaria es crucial para anclar las expectativas de inflación. Posteriormente, se analizan las encuestas de expectativas económicas de siete países sudamericanos seleccionados, destacando con modelos econométricos que el incremento más fuerte ocurrió en aquellos países con historial de incumplimiento de las metas planteadas. Inflation expectations have reacted in several ways to the rise of Latin America inflation until mid-2008, driven by food and oil prices increases. This paper exposes two economic models that explain the determinants of inflations expectations and their relationship with the distinction between monetary and supply shocks, revealing that the monetary policy credibility is critical in anchoring inflation expectations. Then, it analyses inflation expectations survey in seven Latin American countries with econometric models, where is clear that larger increases were observed in countries with previous persistent deviations of inflation targets.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Mendieta & Sergio Cerezo & Javier Cossio, 2009. "¿La inflación está de vuelta en Sudamérica?: choques exógenos, expectativas y credibilidad de la política monetaria," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(3), pages 359-389, octubre-d.
  • Handle: RePEc:cml:moneta:v:xxxii:y:2009:i:3:p:359-389
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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