IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/wptemi/td_1200_18.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The effectiveness of capital controls

Author

Listed:
  • Valerio Nispi Landi

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Alessandro Schiavone

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

The goal of this work is a systematic analysis of the effectiveness of capital controls in reducing the volume of capital flows and the probability of extreme events (surges and flights), strengthening financial stability and affecting the exchange rate. We find that controls significantly reduce capital flows, even though the effectiveness varies across economies and types of investment. Moreover capital controls tend to reduce the probability of extreme episodes. With regard to financial stability objectives, controls on banking inflows reduce domestic credit growth, but this effect is mainly driven by advanced economies. Controls on capital inflows reduce the share of domestic loans denominated in foreign currency. Finally, our estimates suggest that capital controls on inflows tend to be associated with an undervalued exchange rate only in emerging market economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Valerio Nispi Landi & Alessandro Schiavone, 2018. "The effectiveness of capital controls," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1200, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1200_18
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2018/2018-1200/en_tema_1200.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    2. Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur & Falagiarda, Matteo & Bijsterbosch, Martin & Aizenman, Joshua, 2018. "Domestic and multilateral effects of capital controls in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 48-58.
    3. Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri, 2016. "On the Desirability of Capital Controls," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(1), pages 75-102, May.
    4. Emmanuel Farhi & Iván Werning, 2014. "Dilemma Not Trilemma? Capital Controls and Exchange Rates with Volatile Capital Flows," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(4), pages 569-605, November.
    5. M Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 8-62, April.
    6. Marcel Fratzscher, 2014. "Capital Controls and Foreign Exchange Policy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Miguel Fuentes D. & Claudio E. Raddatz & Carmen M. Reinhart (ed.),Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 18, chapter 7, pages 205-253, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. D. Filiz Unsal, 2013. "Capital Flows and Financial Stability: Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Responses," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(1), pages 233-285, March.
    8. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Cédric Tille, 2011. "The great retrenchment: international capital flows during the global financial crisis [‘The great trade collapse: what caused it and what does it mean?’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 26(66), pages 289-346.
    9. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 134(2), pages 599-646.
    10. Nispi Landi, Valerio, 2020. "Capital controls spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    11. Couharde, Cécile & Delatte, Anne-Laure & Grekou, Carl & Mignon, Valérie & Morvillier, Florian, 2018. "EQCHANGE: A world database on actual and equilibrium effective exchange rates," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 206-230.
    12. Forbes, Kristin & Fratzscher, Marcel & Straub, Roland, 2015. "Capital-flow management measures: What are they good for?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 76-97.
    13. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    14. Ostry, Jonathan D. & Ghosh, Atish R. & Chamon, Marcos & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2012. "Tools for managing financial-stability risks from capital inflows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 407-421.
    15. Nicolas Magud & Carmen Reinhart & Kenneth Rogoff, 2005. "Capital Controls: Myth and Reality A Portfolio Balance Approach to Capital Controls," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-10, University of Oregon Economics Department.
    16. Hoggarth, Glen & Jung, Carsten & Reinhardt, Dennis, 2016. "Capital inflows — the good, the bad and the bubbly," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 40, Bank of England.
    17. Arnaud Costinot & Guido Lorenzoni & Iván Werning, 2014. "A Theory of Capital Controls as Dynamic Terms-of-Trade Manipulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(1), pages 77-128.
    18. Anton Korinek, 2011. "The New Economics of Prudential Capital Controls: A Research Agenda," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(3), pages 523-561, August.
    19. Nicolas E. Magud & Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2018. "Capital Controls: Myth and Reality--A Portfolio Balance Approach," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 19(1), pages 1-47, May.
    20. Olivier Blanchard, 2021. "Currency Wars, Coordination, and Capital Controls," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Steven J Davis & Edward S Robinson & Bernard Yeung (ed.), THE ASIAN MONETARY POLICY FORUM Insights for Central Banking, chapter 4, pages 134-157, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    21. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Cihak, Martin & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Feyen, Erik & Levine, Ross, 2013. "Financial Development in 205 Economies, 1960 to 2010," Journal of Financial Perspectives, EY Global FS Institute, vol. 1(2), pages 17-36.
    23. Michael W. Klein, 2012. "Capital Controls: Gates versus Walls," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 317-367.
    24. Alexander D. Rothenberg & Francis E. Warnock, 2011. "Sudden Flight and True Sudden Stops," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 509-524, August.
    25. Bruno, Valentina & Shim, Ilhyock & Shin, Hyun Song, 2017. "Comparative assessment of macroprudential policies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 183-202.
    26. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn & Tongurai, Jittima, 2013. "Unremunerated reserve requirements, exchange rate volatility, and firm value," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 358-378.
    27. Dennis Quinn & Martin Schindler & A Maria Toyoda, 2011. "Assessing Measures of Financial Openness and Integration," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(3), pages 488-522, August.
    28. Chikako Baba & Annamaria Kokenyne, 2011. "Effectiveness of Capital Controls in Selected Emerging Markets in the 2000's," IMF Working Papers 2011/281, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Andrés Fernández & Michael W Klein & Alessandro Rebucci & Martin Schindler & Martín Uribe, 2016. "Capital Control Measures: A New Dataset," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 548-574, August.
    30. Masyita Crystallin & Levan Efremidze & Sungsoo Kim & Wahyu Nugroho & Ozan Sula & Thomas Willett, 2015. "How Common are Capital Flows Surges? How They are Measured Matters -a Lot," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 663-682, September.
    31. Valerio Nispi Landi, 2017. "Capital controls, macroprudential measures and monetary policy interactions in an emerging economy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1154, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    32. Mr. Karl F Habermeier & Annamaria Kokenyne & Chikako Baba, 2011. "The Effectiveness of Capital Controls and Prudential Policies in Managing Large Inflows," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2011/014, International Monetary Fund.
    33. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    34. Claessens, Stijn & Ratnovski, Lev & Cerutti, Eugenio, 2014. "Global Liquidity and Drivers of Cross-Border Bank Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 10314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    35. Binici, Mahir & Hutchison, Michael & Schindler, Martin, 2010. "Controlling capital? Legal restrictions and the asset composition of international financial flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 666-684, June.
    36. Jonathan David Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Karl F Habermeier & Marcos d Chamon & Mahvash S Qureshi & Dennis B. S. Reinhardt, 2010. "Capital Inflows; The Role of Controls," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/04, International Monetary Fund.
    37. Chamon, Marcos & Garcia, Márcio, 2016. "Capital controls in Brazil: Effective?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 163-187.
    38. Gurnain Kaur Pasricha, 2017. "Policy Rules for Capital Controls," BIS Working Papers 670, Bank for International Settlements.
    39. Mr. Anton Korinek, 2011. "The New Economics of Capital Controls Imposed for Prudential Reasons+L4888," IMF Working Papers 2011/298, International Monetary Fund.
    40. Shigeto Kitano & Kenya Takaku, 2017. "Capital Controls and Financial Frictions in a Small Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 761-793, September.
    41. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
    42. Beirne, John & Friedrich, Christian, 2017. "Macroprudential policies, capital flows, and the structure of the banking sector," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 47-68.
    43. G. Bush, 2019. "Financial Development and the Effects of Capital Controls," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 559-592, July.
    44. Anton Korinek & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2014. "From Sudden Stops to Fisherian Deflation: Quantitative Theory and Policy," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 299-332, August.
    45. M Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 8-62, April.
    46. Mr. Marcos d Chamon & Miss Mahvash S Qureshi & Dennis B. S. Reinhardt & Mr. Atish R. Ghosh & Mr. Karl F Habermeier & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, 2010. "Capital Inflows: The Role of Controls," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/004, International Monetary Fund.
    47. Michael W. Klein, 2012. "Capital Controls: Gates versus Walls," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(2 (Fall)), pages 317-367.
    48. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew, 2014. "Capital Controls in the 21st Century," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PA), pages 1-16.
    49. Adrian Blundell-Wignall & Caroline Roulet, 2014. "Capital controls on inflows, the global financial crisis and economic growth: Evidence for emerging economies," OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends, OECD Publishing, vol. 2013(2), pages 29-42.
    50. Emmanuel Farhi & Ivan Werning, "undated". "Dilemma not Trilemma? Capital Controls and Exchange Rates with Volatile Capital Flows," Working Paper 133566, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    51. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(2), pages 599-646.
    52. Martin Schindler, 2009. "Measuring Financial Integration: A New Data Set," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 222-238, April.
    53. Aida Caldera Sánchez & Filippo Gori, 2016. "Can Reforms Promoting Growth Increase Financial Fragility?: An Empirical Assessment," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1340, OECD Publishing.
    54. Dell'Erba, Salvatore & Reinhardt, Dennis, 2015. "FDI, debt and capital controls," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 29-50.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alessandro Moro, 2021. "Can capital controls promote green investments in developing countries?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1348, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Jean-Charles Bricongne & Antoine Cosson & Albane Garnier-Sauveplane & Rémy Lecat & Irena Peresa & Yuliya Vanzhulova, 2021. "Financial flows, macro-prudential policies, capital restrictions and institutions: what do gravity equations tell us?," Working papers 842, Banque de France.
    3. Fernando Eguren Martin & Mark Joy & Claudia Maurini & Alessandro Moro & Valerio Nispi Landi & Alessandro Schiavone & Carlos van Hombeeck, 2020. "Capital flows during the pandemic: lessons for a more resilient international financial architecture," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 589, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Kitano, Shigeto & Zhou, Yang, 2022. "Effects of China’s capital controls on individual asset categories," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    5. Lorenzo Esposito & Giuseppe Mastromatteo, 2019. "Defaultnomics: Making Sense of the Barro-Ricardo Equivalence in a Financialized World," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_933, Levy Economics Institute.
    6. Apoorv Bhargava & Romain Bouis & Annamaria Kokenyne & Manuel Perez-Archila & Umang Rawat & Ms. Ratna Sahay, 2023. "Do Capital Controls Limit Inflow Surges?," IMF Working Papers 2023/050, International Monetary Fund.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Norring, Anni, 2022. "Taming the tides of capital: Review of capital controls and macroprudential policy in emerging economies," BoF Economics Review 1/2022, Bank of Finland.
    2. Bilge Erten & Anton Korinek & José Antonio Ocampo, 2021. "Capital Controls: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 45-89, March.
    3. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2018. "Taming the Tide of Capital Flows: A Policy Guide," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262037165, December.
    4. Das, Mitali & Ordal, Hailey, 2022. "Macroeconomic stability or financial stability: How are capital controls used? Insights from a new database," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    5. Binici, Mahir & Das, Mitali, 2021. "Recalibration of capital controls: Evidence from the IMF taxonomy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    6. Radhika Pandey & Gurnain K. Pasricha & Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah, 2021. "Motivations for capital controls and their effectiveness," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 391-415, January.
    7. Nataliia Osina, 2021. "Global liquidity and capital flow regulations," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(1), pages 52-72, March.
    8. Nataliia Osina, 0. "Global liquidity and capital flow regulations," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 0, pages 1-21.
    9. Yang Zhou, 2022. "The Effects of Capital Controls on Housing Prices," Discussion Paper Series DP2022-29, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    10. Alessandro Rebucci & Chang Ma, 2019. "Capital Controls: A Survey of the New Literature," NBER Working Papers 26558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur & Falagiarda, Matteo & Bijsterbosch, Martin & Aizenman, Joshua, 2018. "Domestic and multilateral effects of capital controls in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 48-58.
    12. Forbes, Kristin & Fratzscher, Marcel & Straub, Roland, 2015. "Capital-flow management measures: What are they good for?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 76-97.
    13. Davis, J. Scott & Fujiwara, Ippei & Huang, Kevin X.D. & Wang, Jiao, 2021. "Foreign exchange reserves as a tool for capital account management," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 473-488.
    14. Chokri Zehri, 2020. "The Domestic Impacts And Spillovers Of Capital Controls," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 65(227), pages 31-66, October –.
    15. Cantú, Carlos, 2019. "Effects of capital controls on foreign exchange liquidity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 201-222.
    16. Bruno, Valentina & Shim, Ilhyock & Shin, Hyun Song, 2017. "Comparative assessment of macroprudential policies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 183-202.
    17. Nispi Landi, Valerio, 2020. "Capital controls spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    18. Chokri Zehri & David McMillan, 2020. "Restrictive policy impacts in emerging economies," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1815979-181, January.
    19. Javier Bianchi & Guido Lorenzoni, 2021. "The Prudential Use of Capital Controls and Foreign Currency Reserves," Working Papers 787, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    20. Zhang, Longmei & Zoli, Edda, 2016. "Leaning against the wind: Macroprudential policy in Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 33-52.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    international capital flows; capital controls; prudential tools;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1200_18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.