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Forecasting the Impact of Connected and Automated Vehicles on Energy Use A Microeconomic Study of Induced Travel and Energy Rebound

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  • Morteza Taiebat
  • Samuel Stolper
  • Ming Xu

Abstract

Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) are expected to yield significant improvements in safety, energy efficiency, and time utilization. However, their net effect on energy and environmental outcomes is unclear. Higher fuel economy reduces the energy required per mile of travel, but it also reduces the fuel cost of travel, incentivizing more travel and causing an energy "rebound effect." Moreover, CAVs are predicted to vastly reduce the time cost of travel, inducing further increases in travel and energy use. In this paper, we forecast the induced travel and rebound from CAVs using data on existing travel behavior. We develop a microeconomic model of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) choice under income and time constraints; then we use it to estimate elasticities of VMT demand with respect to fuel and time costs, with fuel cost data from the 2017 United States National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and wage-derived predictions of travel time cost. Our central estimate of the combined price elasticity of VMT demand is -0.4, which differs substantially from previous estimates. We also find evidence that wealthier households have more elastic demand, and that households at all income levels are more sensitive to time costs than to fuel costs. We use our estimated elasticities to simulate VMT and energy use impacts of full, private CAV adoption under a range of possible changes to the fuel and time costs of travel. We forecast a 2-47% increase in travel demand for an average household. Our results indicate that backfire - i.e., a net rise in energy use - is a possibility, especially in higher income groups. This presents a stiff challenge to policy goals for reductions in not only energy use but also traffic congestion and local and global air pollution, as CAV use increases.

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  • Morteza Taiebat & Samuel Stolper & Ming Xu, 2019. "Forecasting the Impact of Connected and Automated Vehicles on Energy Use A Microeconomic Study of Induced Travel and Energy Rebound," Papers 1902.00382, arXiv.org, revised May 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1902.00382
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan C. T. Bieser & Vlad C. Coroamă, 2021. "Direkte und indirekte Umwelteffekte der Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologie [Direct and indirect environmental effects of information and communication technology]," NachhaltigkeitsManagementForum | Sustainability Management Forum, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 1-11, March.
    2. Pan, Shuai & Fulton, Lewis M. & Roy, Anirban & Jung, Jia & Choi, Yunsoo & Gao, H. Oliver, 2021. "Shared use of electric autonomous vehicles: Air quality and health impacts of future mobility in the United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    3. Nuri C. Onat & Jafar Mandouri & Murat Kucukvar & Burak Sen & Saddam A. Abbasi & Wael Alhajyaseen & Adeeb A. Kutty & Rateb Jabbar & Marcello Contestabile & Abdel Magid Hamouda, 2023. "Rebound effects undermine carbon footprint reduction potential of autonomous electric vehicles," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    4. Dowds, Jonathan & Sullivan, James & Rowangould, Gregory & Aultman-Hall, Lisa, 2021. "Consideration of Automated Vehicle Benefits and Research Needs for Rural America," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt4v25q5n9, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    5. Rasti-Barzoki, Morteza & Moon, Ilkyeong, 2020. "A game theoretic approach for car pricing and its energy efficiency level versus governmental sustainability goals by considering rebound effect: A case study of South Korea," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    6. Harb, Mustapha PhD & Malik, Jai PhD & Circella, Giovanni PhD & Walker, Joan L. PhD, 2022. "Simulating Life with Personally-Owned Autonomous Vehicles through a Naturalistic Experiment with Personal Drivers," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt79g921rp, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    7. Pudāne, Baiba & van Cranenburgh, Sander & Chorus, Caspar G., 2021. "A day in the life with an automated vehicle: Empirical analysis of data from an interactive stated activity-travel survey," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    8. Liao, Zitong & Taiebat, Morteza & Xu, Ming, 2021. "Shared autonomous electric vehicle fleets with vehicle-to-grid capability: Economic viability and environmental co-benefits," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    9. Batarce, Marco & Basso, Franco & Basso, Leonardo J., 2023. "The elasticity of demand on urban highways: The case of Santiago," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 234-241.
    10. Dong, Haoxuan & Zhuang, Weichao & Chen, Boli & Wang, Yan & Lu, Yanbo & Liu, Ying & Xu, Liwei & Yin, Guodong, 2022. "A comparative study of energy-efficient driving strategy for connected internal combustion engine and electric vehicles at signalized intersections," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    11. Yuan, Zhen & Xu, Jie & Li, Bing & Yao, Tingting, 2022. "Limits of technological progress in controlling energy consumption: Evidence from the energy rebound effects across China's industrial sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    12. Harb, Mustapha PhD & Malik, Jai PhD & Circella, Giovanni PhD & Walker, Joan L. PhD, 2022. "Simulating Life with Personally-Owned Autonomous Vehicles through a Naturalistic Experiment with Personal Drivers," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt79g921rp, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    13. Samantha Heiberg & Emily Emond & Cody Allen & Dheeraj Raya & Venkataramana Gadhamshetty & Saurabh Sudha Dhiman & Achyuth Ravilla & Ilke Celik, 2023. "Environmental Impact Assessment of Autonomous Transportation Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-13, June.
    14. Rasti-Barzoki, Morteza & Moon, Ilkyeong, 2021. "A game theoretic approach for analyzing electric and gasoline-based vehicles’ competition in a supply chain under government sustainable strategies: A case study of South Korea," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    15. Möller, Jasmin & Daschkovska, Kateryna & Bogaschewsky, Ronald, 2019. "Sustainable city logistics: rebound effects from self-driving vehicles," Chapters from the Proceedings of the Hamburg International Conference of Logistics (HICL), in: Jahn, Carlos & Kersten, Wolfgang & Ringle, Christian M. (ed.), Digital Transformation in Maritime and City Logistics: Smart Solutions for Logistics. Proceedings of the Hamburg International Conference of Logistics, volume 28, pages 299-337, Hamburg University of Technology (TUHH), Institute of Business Logistics and General Management.
    16. Taiebat, Morteza & Stolper, Samuel & Xu, Ming, 2022. "Widespread range suitability and cost competitiveness of electric vehicles for ride-hailing drivers," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 319(C).
    17. Max Luke & Priyanshi Somani & Turner Cotterman & Dhruv Suri & Stephen J. Lee, 2020. "No COVID-19 Climate Silver Lining in the US Power Sector," Papers 2008.06660, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
    18. Alexander Cremer & Katrin Müller & Matthias Finkbeiner, 2021. "A Systemic View of Future Mobility Scenario Impacts on and Their Implications for City Organizational LCA: The Case of Autonomous Driving in Vienna," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-19, December.
    19. Moneim Massar & Imran Reza & Syed Masiur Rahman & Sheikh Muhammad Habib Abdullah & Arshad Jamal & Fahad Saleh Al-Ismail, 2021. "Impacts of Autonomous Vehicles on Greenhouse Gas Emissions—Positive or Negative?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(11), pages 1-23, May.

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