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A Systemic View of Future Mobility Scenario Impacts on and Their Implications for City Organizational LCA: The Case of Autonomous Driving in Vienna

Author

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  • Alexander Cremer

    (Institute of Environmental Technology, Technische Universität Berlin, 10623 Berlin, Germany)

  • Katrin Müller

    (Siemens AG, 13629 Berlin, Germany)

  • Matthias Finkbeiner

    (Institute of Environmental Technology, Technische Universität Berlin, 10623 Berlin, Germany)

Abstract

Autonomous vehicles (AV) are expected to significantly reshape urban mobility. Whether advancements at vehicle level also translate into positive environmental outcomes at city level is still uncertain. We investigate under which conditions a city could enable low emission AV mobility and what challenges are to be expected along the way from an environmental point of view. We build upon our recent environmental performance study of Vienna and combine city organizational life cycle assessment (city-OLCA) with AV transport models from literature for three AV use cases: an own AV, a shared AV, and a shared AV ride service. Most cases lower Vienna’s passenger capacity (by up to 28%) and increase motorized road traffic by a maximum of 49% (own AVs). Traffic relief is observed for shared AVs (−40%) if accompanied by a conventional car ban. This case reduces transport related GHG emissions compared to both Vienna’s current baseline (−60%) and a future electrified transportation system (−4.2%). These transformations have also shifted emission responsibility to the public level. While Vienna’s total GHG emissions could be reduced by 12%, the city’s emission responsibility increases from 25% to 32%. Efficient mass transit, the electrification of the mobility sector and grid decarbonization are key to reducing transport emissions in Vienna. The direction of GHG emission development will be determined by the extent to which these conditions are promoted. AV mobility probably will not be a main contributor.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Cremer & Katrin Müller & Matthias Finkbeiner, 2021. "A Systemic View of Future Mobility Scenario Impacts on and Their Implications for City Organizational LCA: The Case of Autonomous Driving in Vienna," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-19, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2021:i:1:p:158-:d:710213
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Taiebat, Morteza & Stolper, Samuel & Xu, Ming, 2019. "Forecasting the Impact of Connected and Automated Vehicles on Energy Use: A Microeconomic Study of Induced Travel and Energy Rebound," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C), pages 297-308.
    2. Taiebat, Morteza & Stolper, Samuel & Xu, Ming, 2019. "Forecasting the Impact of Connected and Automated Vehicles on Energy Use: A Microeconomic Study of Induced Travel and Energy Rebound," LawArXiv dk6qv, Center for Open Science.
    3. Morteza Taiebat & Samuel Stolper & Ming Xu, 2019. "Forecasting the Impact of Connected and Automated Vehicles on Energy Use A Microeconomic Study of Induced Travel and Energy Rebound," Papers 1902.00382, arXiv.org, revised May 2019.
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