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Peak car? Drivers of the recent decline in Swedish car use

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  • Bastian, Anne
  • Börjesson, Maria

Abstract

It has long been well-known that economic variables such as GDP and fuel price as well as socio-demographic characteristics and spatial distribution are key factors explaining car use trends. However, due to the recently observed plateau of total car travel in many high income countries, it has been argued that other factors, such as changes in preferences, attitudes and life-styles, have become more important drivers of car use. This paper shows that the two variables, GDP per capita and fuel price, explain most of the aggregate trends in car distances driven per adult in Sweden: as much as 80% over the years 2002 to 2012. The estimated elasticities are well in line with previous literature and can reasonably well reproduce the trend in car distances driven per adult back to 1980. We find, however, a substantial variation in elasticities between municipalities depending on public transport supply, population density, share of foreign-born inhabitants and the average income level.

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  • Bastian, Anne & Börjesson, Maria, 2015. "Peak car? Drivers of the recent decline in Swedish car use," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 94-102.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:42:y:2015:i:c:p:94-102
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2015.05.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Circella, Giovanni & Tiedeman, Kate & Handy, Susan & Alemi, Farzad & Mokhtarian, Patricia, 2016. "What Affects U.S. Passenger Travel? Current Trends and Future Perspectives," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt2w16b8bf, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    3. Yusak O. Susilo & Chengxi Liu & Maria Börjesson, 2019. "The changes of activity-travel participation across gender, life-cycle, and generations in Sweden over 30 years," Transportation, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 793-818, June.
    4. Meng Zhou & Donggen Wang, 2019. "Investigating inter-generational changes in activity-travel behavior: a disaggregate approach," Transportation, Springer, vol. 46(5), pages 1643-1687, October.
    5. Bastian, Anne & Börjesson, Maria & Eliasson, Jonas, 2016. "Explaining “peak car” with economic variables," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 236-250.
    6. Börjesson, Maria & Kristoffersson, Ida, 2018. "The Swedish congestion charges: Ten years on," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 35-51.
    7. Mattioli, Giulio & Wadud, Zia & Lucas, Karen, 2018. "Vulnerability to fuel price increases in the UK: A household level analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 227-242.
    8. Susilo, Yusak & Liu, Chengxi & Börjesson, Maria, 2018. "The changes of activity-travel participation across gender, life-cycle, and generations in Sweden over 30 years," Working papers in Transport Economics 2018:8, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    9. Elhorst, J. Paul & Madre, Jean-Loup & Pirotte, Alain, 2020. "Car traffic, habit persistence, cross-sectional dependence, and spatial heterogeneity: New insights using French departmental data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 614-632.
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