Shocks in financial markets, price expectation, and damped harmonic oscillators
AbstractUsing a modified damped harmonic oscillator model equivalent to a model of market dynamics with price expectations, we analyze the reaction of financial markets to shocks. In order to do this, we gather data from indices of a variety of financial markets for the 1987 Black Monday, the Russian crisis of 1998, the crash after September 11th (2001), and the recent downturn of markets due to the subprime mortgage crisis in the USA (2008). Analyzing those data we were able to establish the amount by which each market felt the shocks, a dampening factor which expresses the capacity of a market of absorving a shock, and also a frequency related with volatility after the shock. The results gauge the efficiency of different markets in recovering from such shocks, and measure some level of dependence between them. We also show, using the correlation matrices between the indices used, that financial markets are now much more connected than they were two decades ago.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1103.1992.
Date of creation: Mar 2011
Date of revision: Sep 2011
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://arxiv.org/
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-03-19 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- King, Mervyn & Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1994.
"Volatility and Links between National Stock Markets,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society,
Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 901-33, July.
- Mervyn King & Enrique Sentana & Sushil Wadhwani, 1990. "Volatiltiy and Links Between National Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 3357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- P. Hartmann & S. Straetmans & C.G. de Vries, 2001.
"Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
01-071/2, Tinbergen Institute.
- de Vries, Casper G & Hartmann, Philipp & Straetmans, Stefan, 2001. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 2916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hartmann, P. & Straetmans, S. & De Vries, C.G., 2001. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," Papers 71, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
- Hartmann, Philipp & Straetmans, Stefan & de Vries, Casper, 2001. "Asset market linkages in crisis periods," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0071, European Central Bank.
- Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pericoli, Marcello & Sbracia, Massimo, 2002.
"Some Contagion, Some Interdependence: More Pitfalls in Tests of Financial Contagion,"
CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
3310, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pericoli, Marcello & Sbracia, Massimo, 2005. "'Some contagion, some interdependence': More pitfalls in tests of financial contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1177-1199, December.
- Pierre Cizeau & Marc Potters & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2000.
"Correlation structure of extreme stock returns,"
cond-mat/0006034, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2001.
- Y. Malevergne & D. Sornette, 2002. "Investigating Extreme Dependences: Concepts and Tools," Papers cond-mat/0203166, arXiv.org.
- Bartram, Sohnke M. & Wang, Yaw-Huei, 2005. "Another look at the relationship between cross-market correlation and volatility," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 75-88, June.
- Hommes, Cars & Lux, Thomas, 2013.
"Individual Expectations And Aggregate Behavior In Learning-To-Forecast Experiments,"
Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(02), pages 373-401, March.
- Cars Hommes & Thomas Lux, 2008. "Individual Expectations and Aggregate Behavior in Learning to Forecast Experiments," Kiel Working Papers 1466, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Hommes, C.H. & Lux, T., 2009. "Individual Expectations and Aggregate Behavior in Learning to Forcast Experiments," CeNDEF Working Papers 09-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994.
"Time-Varying World Market Integration,"
NBER Working Papers
4843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.