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Financial Bubbles, Real Estate bubbles, Derivative Bubbles, and the Financial and Economic Crisis

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Author Info
Didier Sornette
Ryan Woodard
Abstract

The financial crisis of 2008, which started with an initially well-defined epicenter focused on mortgage backed securities (MBS), has been cascading into a global economic recession, whose increasing severity and uncertain duration has led and is continuing to lead to massive losses and damage for billions of people. Heavy central bank interventions and government spending programs have been launched worldwide and especially in the USA and Europe, with the hope to unfreeze credit and boltster consumption. Here, we present evidence and articulate a general framework that allows one to diagnose the fundamental cause of the unfolding financial and economic crisis: the accumulation of several bubbles and their interplay and mutual reinforcement has led to an illusion of a "perpetual money machine" allowing financial institutions to extract wealth from an unsustainable artificial process. Taking stock of this diagnostic, we conclude that many of the interventions to address the so-called liquidity crisis and to encourage more consumption are ill-advised and even dangerous, given that precautionary reserves were not accumulated in the "good times" but that huge liabilities were. The most "interesting" present times constitute unique opportunities but also great challenges, for which we offer a few recommendations.

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Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Quantitative Finance Papers with number 0905.0220.

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Date of creation: May 2009
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Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0905.0220

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  1. Vasiliki Skreta & Laura Veldkamp, 2009. "Ratings Shopping and Asset Complexity: A Theory of Ratings Inflation," NBER Working Papers 14761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. M. Serrano & Marián Boguñá & Alessandro Vespignani, 2007. "Patterns of dominant flows in the world trade web," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 111-124, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Alan Greenspan & James Kennedy, 2008. "Sources and uses of equity extracted from homes," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 120-144, spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. W. -X. Zhou & D. Sornette, 2003. "2000-2003 Real Estate Bubble in the UK but not in the USA," Quantitative Finance Papers physics/0303028, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2003. [Downloadable!]
  5. Lux, Thomas & Sornette, Didier, 2002. "On Rational Bubbles and Fat Tails," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 589-610, August.
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  6. J. Doyne Farmer, 2002. "Market force, ecology and evolution," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(5), pages 895-953, November.
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  7. M. Angeles Serrano & Marian Boguna & Alessandro Vespignani, 2007. "Patterns of dominant flows in the world trade web," Quantitative Finance Papers 0704.1225, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
  8. B. M. Roehner & D. Sornette, 2000. ""Thermometers" of Speculative Frenzy," Quantitative Finance Papers cond-mat/0001353, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
  9. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2009. "More hedging instruments may destabilize markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1912-1928, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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