IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/ufstwp/28073.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Causes Of Instability In Cereal Production In Ethiopia

Author

Listed:
  • Alemu, Zerihun Gudeta

Abstract

In Ethiopia, average cereal production between the period 1990 and 2000 did not change significantly compared to the period between 1974 and 1990. However, cereal production between the period 1990 and 2000 was characterized by significant instability. This study reviews literature on factors with potential impact on instability in cereal production in Ethiopia and applies descriptive and variance decomposition procedures to determine the sources of increased instability in cereal production. It was found that production instability was caused more by increased yield instability than instability in an area. Yield instability could be the result of changes in technology, changes in policy and changes in weather conditions. It was concluded by this study that instability regarding yield was predominantly the result of weather variability. This is because, in Ethiopia, rainfall fluctuating from the long-term average is becoming more common, the use of high-powered inputs is limited to a small number of farmers, production is at subsistence level, and farmers' responsiveness to policy changes is constrained by infrastructural, institutional and the existing land policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Alemu, Zerihun Gudeta, 2005. "Causes Of Instability In Cereal Production In Ethiopia," Working Paper Series 28073, University of the Free State, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ufstwp:28073
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.28073
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/28073/files/wp05al01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.28073?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    2. Negassa, Asfaw & Jayne, Thomas S., 1998. "Vertical and Spatial Integration of Grain Markets in Ethiopia: Implications for Grain Markets," Food Security Collaborative Working Papers 55598, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    3. Ellis,Frank, 1992. "Agricultural Policies in Developing Countries," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521395847.
    4. Webb, Patrick & von Braun, Joachim & Yohannes, Yisehac, 1992. "Famine in Ethiopia: policy implications of coping failure at national and household levels," Research reports 92, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Jaeger,William K., 1991. "The impact of policy in African agriculture : an empirical investigation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 640, The World Bank.
    6. Dessalegn, Gebremeskel & Jayne, Thomas S. & Shaffer, James D., 1998. "Market Structure, Conduct, and Performance: Constraints of Performance of Ethiopian Grain Markets," Food Security Collaborative Working Papers 55597, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    7. Peter B. R. Hazell, 1984. "Sources of Increased Instability in Indian and U.S. Cereal Production," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 66(3), pages 302-311.
    8. Demeke, Mulat & Kelly, Valerie A. & Jayne, Thomas S. & Said, Ali & Le Vallee, Jean-Charles & Chen, H., 1998. "Agricultural Market Performance and Determinants of Fertilizer Use in Ethiopia," Food Security Collaborative Working Papers 55599, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alemu, Zerihun Gudeta & Oosthuizen, Klopper & van Schalkwyk, Herman D., 2003. "Is Increased Instability In Cereal Production In Ethiopia Caused By Policy Changes?," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25892, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Alemu, Zerihun Gudeta & Oosthuizen, L.K. & van Schalkwyk, Herman D., 2003. "The Effect And Persistence Of Major Changes In Economic Policies On The Long-Term Performance (Trend) Of Ethiopian Agriculture," 2003 Annual Conference, October 2-3, 2003, Pretoria, South Africa 19089, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA).
    3. Frank Ellis, 1998. "Household strategies and rural livelihood diversification," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 1-38.
    4. Antoine d'Autume, 1992. "Coïntégration et modèles dynamiques," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 106(5), pages 71-83.
    5. Perron, Pierre & Wada, Tatsuma, 2016. "Measuring business cycles with structural breaks and outliers: Applications to international data," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 281-303.
    6. Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda, 2012. "Targeted Subsidies and Private Market Participation: An Assessment of Fertilizer Demand in Nigeria:," IFPRI discussion papers 1194, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Heinemann, Friedrich, 1994. "Central Europe and European monetary integration: a strategy for catching up," ZEW Discussion Papers 94-21, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    8. Nucci, Francesco & Pozzolo, Alberto Franco, 2010. "The exchange rate, employment and hours: What firm-level data say," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 112-123, November.
    9. Britta Gehrke & Fang Yao, 2016. "Persistence and volatility of real exchange rates: the role of supply shocks revisited," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2016/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    10. Joël Cariolle & Michaël Goujon, 2015. "Measuring Macroeconomic Instability: A Critical Survey Illustrated With Exports Series," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 1-26, February.
    11. Marie-Ange VEGANZONES-VAROUDAKIS & NABLI, 2002. "Exchange Rate Regime and Competitiveness of Manufactured Exports: The case of MENA Countries," Working Papers 200230, CERDI.
    12. Jaromir Benes & David Vavra, 2004. "Eigenvalue Decomposition of Time Series with Application to the Czech Business Cycle," Working Papers 2004/08, Czech National Bank.
    13. Viktor Shevchuk, 2017. "The Impact of Anticipated and Unanticipated Exchange Rate Variability in Ukraine," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 241, pages 33-46.
    14. Richard H. Clarida & Mark P. Taylor, 2003. "Nonlinear Permanent - Temporary Decompositions in Macroeconomics and Finance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages 125-139, March.
    15. R. Barrell & D. Karim & C. Macchiarelli, 2020. "Towards an understanding of credit cycles: do all credit booms cause crises?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(10), pages 978-993, July.
    16. Sager, Michael & Taylor, Mark P., 2014. "Generating currency trading rules from the term structure of forward foreign exchange premia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 230-250.
    17. Robert Dixon & G.C. Lim, 2004. "Underlying Inflation in Australia: Are the Existing Measures Satisfactory?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(251), pages 373-386, December.
    18. M.S.Rafiq, 2006. "Business Cycle Moderation - Good Policies or Good Luck: Evidence and Explanations for the Euro Area," Discussion Paper Series 2006_21, Department of Economics, Loughborough University.
    19. Harissis H. & Mesomeris S. & Staikouras S., 2001. "Long-Term Trends and Short-Run Dynamics in International Stock Markets," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3-4), pages 103-120, July - De.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crop Production/Industries;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:ufstwp:28073. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dauovza.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.