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The Effect And Persistence Of Major Changes In Economic Policies On The Long-Term Performance (Trend) Of Ethiopian Agriculture

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  • Alemu, Zerihun Gudeta
  • Oosthuizen, L.K.
  • van Schalkwyk, Herman D.
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    Abstract

    Agriculture in the Ethiopian economy has survived three major structural breaks, namely the 1974 change of policy in favour of a command-based economic system, the 1984 famine and the 1992 change of policy that introduced a market economy. A regression procedure was applied to analyze the effect of these breaks on the slope and intercept of agricultural GDP. In addition, statistical properties were studied to measure the degree of persistence of shocks in agricultural GDP. In the regression equation, only the 1984 famine was found to be significant. The non-significance of policy parameters in the regression equation could be associated with a lack of infrastructural facilities and the subsistence nature of Ethiopian agriculture. The study of the statistical property of agricultural GDP revealed that agricultural GDP is a trend stationary process, which implies that fluctuations on agricultural GDP series, which mostly occur due to good or bad weather conditions, are temporary and dissipate in a short period of time.

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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19089
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Agricultural Economic Association of South Africa (AEASA) in its series 2003 Annual Conference, October 2-3, 2003, Pretoria, South Africa with number 19089.

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    Date of creation: 2003
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:aeassa:19089

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    Web page: http://www.aeasa.org.za/
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    Keywords: Political Economy; Productivity Analysis;

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    1. Perron, P., 1989. "Testing For A Unit Root In A Time Series With A Changing Mean," Papers 347, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
    2. de Janvry, Alain & Sadoulet, Elisabeth, 1989. "Investment strategies to combat rural poverty: A proposal for Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 17(8), pages 1203-1221, August.
    3. Demeke, Mulat & Kelly, Valerie A. & Jayne, Thomas S. & Said, Ali & Le Vallee, Jean-Charles & Chen, H., 1998. "Agricultural Market Performance and Determinants of Fertilizer Use in Ethiopia," Food Security Collaborative Working Papers 55599, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    4. Dessalegn, Gebremeskel & Jayne, Thomas S. & Shaffer, James D., 1998. "Market Structure, Conduct, and Performance: Constraints of Performance of Ethiopian Grain Markets," Food Security Collaborative Working Papers 55597, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    5. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    6. Nathan S. Balke, 1991. "Modeling trends in macroeconomic time series," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue May, pages 19-33.
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