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Alternative Market Access Scenarios in the Agricultural Trade Negotiations of the Doha Round

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  • Antimiani, Alessandro
  • Conforti, Piero
  • Salvatici, Luca

Abstract

The paper explores an important issue in multilateral agricultural trade negotiations, namely the approach taken to reduce tariffs, simulating possible liberalization scenarios. The analysis is based on the model of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), and on the related version 6.0 database. Scenarios are run on a 2013 baseline, built by taking into account a number of events that have affected (and will further affect) world agricultural markets up to that period, focusing on the effects that are specifically attributable to further trade liberalization in the Doha Round. The policy strategies analyzed are two hypothetical liberalization scenarios in terms of market access and export competition, plus a free agricultural trade benchmark scenario. More specifically, in terms of market access we compare proportional cuts in tariffs with a Swiss-formula approach. Over the range of formula parameters considered here, we find that the impacts are not greatly influenced by the extent to which higher tariffs face bigger cuts. Results indicate that welfare gains could be reaped both by developed and developing countries, but only the possibility of inter-county compensations would allow, at least in principle, an agreement to be reached.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements in its series Working Papers with number 18878.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ags:tragwp:18878

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Web page: http://tradeag.vitamib.com/

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Keywords: International Relations/Trade; F13; Q17;

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  1. Gibson, Paul R. & Wainio, John & Whitley, Daniel B. & Bohman, Mary, 2001. "Profiles Of Tariffs In Global Agricultural Markets," Agricultural Economics Reports 34055, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  2. Antoine Bouët & Jean-Christophe Bureau & Yvan Decreux & Sébastien Jean, 2004. "Multilateral Agricultural Trade Liberalization: The Contrasting Fortunes of Developing Countries in the Doha Round," Working Papers 2004-18, CEPII research center.
  3. Huff, Karen & Thomas W. Hertel, 2001. "Decomposing Welfare Changes in GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 308, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  4. Johnson, Martin & Mahe, Louis Pascal & Roe, Terry L., 1990. "Politically Acceptable Trade Compromises Between The EC and The US: A Game Theory Approach," Working Papers 51154, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
  5. Westcott, Paul C. & Young, C. Edwin & Price, J. Michael, 2002. "The 2002 Farm Act: Provisions And Implications For Commodity Markets," Agricultural Information Bulletins 33745, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  6. Hertel, Thomas W & Martin, Will, 2001. "Second-Best Linkages and the Gains from Global Reform of Manufactures Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 215-32, May.
  7. Hanoch, Giora, 1975. "Production and Demand Models with Direct or Indirect Implicit Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 43(3), pages 395-419, May.
  8. C. F. Bach & S. E. Frandsen & H. G. Jensen, 2000. "Agricultural and Economy-Wide Effects of European Enlargement: Modelling the Common Agricultural Policy," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 162-180.
  9. Rae, Allan N. & Strutt, Anna, 2003. "The Current Round of Agricultural Trade Negotiations: Should We Bother About Domestic Support?," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 4(2).
  10. Manole, Vlad & Martin, Will & Francois, Joseph, 2005. "Choosing formulas for market access negotiation : efficiency and market access considerations," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3474, The World Bank.
  11. Hans van Meijl & Frank van Tongeren, 2002. "The Agenda 2000 CAP reform, world prices and GATT--WTO export constraints," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 29(4), pages 445-470, December.
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