A general equilibrium long-term path of the world economy

Thinking of how the relative sizes of countries and how the geography of world production and trade will be a_x001b_ected in the long run must be based on sound economic reasoning about the determinants of long term growth. It must also be embedded in a general equilibrium framework that takes account of the interactions among markets and sectors, as well as between countries. This paper takes stock of a three phase research project. The _x001c_rst step consists of deriving and estimating a three-factor (labor, capital, energy) macroeconomic growth model for a large set of individual countries, which _x001c_ts two forms of technological progress (standard TFP and energy e_x001e_ciency). The second step consists of providing with the sectoral detail with a Computable General Equilibrium model of the world economy calibrated to _x001c_t these projections. In a third step we compare this baseline with two alternative scenarios on our main assumptions.