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Trade patterns in the 2060 world economy

Author

Listed:
  • Jean Chateau

    (OCDE - Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)

  • Lionel Fontagné

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique)

  • Jean Fouré

    (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique)

  • Åsa Johansson

    (OCDE - Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)

  • Eduardo Olaberría

    (OCDE - Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)

Abstract

This paper presents long-term trade scenarios for the world economy up to 2060 based on a modelling approach that combines aggregate growth projections for the world with a detailed computable general equilibrium sectoral trade model. The analysis suggests that over the next 50 years, the geographical centre of trade will continue to shift from OECD to non-OECD regions reflecting faster growth in non-OECD countries. The relative importance of different regions in specific export markets is set to change markedly over the next half century with emerging economies gaining export shares in manufacturing and services. Trade liberalisation, including gradual removal of tariffs, regulatory barriers in services and agricultural support, as well as a reduction in transaction costs on goods, could increase global trade and GDP over the next 50 years. Specific scenarios of regional liberalisation among a core group of OECD countries or partial multilateral liberalisation could, respectively, raise trade by 4% and 15% and GDP by 0.6% and 2.8% by 2060 relative to the status quo. Finally, the model highlights that investment in education has an influence on trade and high-skill specialisation patterns over the coming decades. Slower educational upgrading in key emerging economies than expected in the baseline scenario could reduce world exports by 2% by 2060. Lower up-skilling in emerging economies would also slow down the restructuring towards higher value-added activities in these emerging economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean Chateau & Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré & Åsa Johansson & Eduardo Olaberría, 2015. "Trade patterns in the 2060 world economy," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01299777, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-01299777
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01299777
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fontagné, Lionel & Fouré, Jean, 2013. "Opening a Pandora's box: Modeling world trade patterns at the 2035 horizon," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2013-09, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
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    5. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2013. "Modelling the world economy at the 2050 horizon," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 21(4), pages 617-654, October.
    6. Åsa Johansson & Yvan Guillemette & Fabrice Murtin & David Turner & Giuseppe Nicoletti & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Philip Bagnoli & Guillaume Bousquet & Francesca Spinelli, 2013. "Long-Term Growth Scenarios," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1000, OECD Publishing.
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    8. Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré & Maria Priscila Ramos, 2013. "MIRAGE-e: A General Equilibrium Long-term Path of the World Economy," Working Papers 2013-39, CEPII research center.
    9. Antoine Bouët & Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné & Sébastien Jean & David Laborde, 2008. "Assessing Applied Protection across the World," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(5), pages 850-863, November.
    10. Edward N. Wolff, 1999. "The productivity paradox: evidence from indirect indicators of service sector productivity growth," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 32(2), pages 281-308, April.
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    14. Houssein Guimbard & Sébastien Jean & Mondher Mimouni & Xavier Pichot, 2012. "MAcMap-HS6 2007, an Exhaustive and Consistent Measure of Applied Protection in 2007," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 130, pages 99-122.
    15. repec:cii:cepiei:2012-q2-130-5 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Ginanneschi, Marco, 2021. "Long-term strategic thinking, the Themis method and the future of food," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    2. Åsa Johansson & Eduardo Olaberría, 2014. "Long-term Patterns of Trade and Specialisation," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1136, OECD Publishing.
    3. Anderson, Kym, 2022. "Trade-related food policies in a more volatile climate and trade environment," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    4. Rob Dellink & Hyunjeong Hwang & Elisa Lanzi & Jean Chateau, 2017. "International trade consequences of climate change," OECD Trade and Environment Working Papers 2017/1, OECD Publishing.
    5. Chateau, Jean & Dellink, Rob & Hwang, Hyunjeong & Lanzi, Elisa, 2016. "An examination of the International Trade Impacts of Climate Change," Conference papers 332683, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Åsa Johansson & Eduardo Olaberría, 2014. "Global Trade and Specialisation Patterns Over the Next 50 Years," OECD Economic Policy Papers 10, OECD Publishing.
    7. Bekkers, Eddy & Corong, Erwin L. & Métivier, Jeanne & Orlov, Daniil, 2023. "How will global trade patterns evolve in the long run?," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2023-03, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    General equilibrium trade model; long-term trade and specialisation patterns; trade liberalisation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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