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Long-run growth scenarios for the world economy

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  • Duval, Romain
  • de la Maisonneuve, Christine

Abstract

This paper develops and applies a simple "conditional growth" framework to make long-term GDP projections for the world economy, taking as a starting point the recent empirical evidence about the drivers of existing cross-country income disparities. Human capital is projected by cohorts, and allowance is implicitly made for the impact of ageing and potential labour market and pension reforms on employment growth. Leaving aside deeper sources of uncertainty such as model and parameter uncertainty, projections are found to be sensitive to future economic policies in the areas of education, pensions, labour markets and climate change mitigation, and even more so to total factor productivity and population trends. A baseline scenario projects fairly stable world GDP growth of about 3.5% annually on average (in PPP terms) over 2005-2050.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Policy Modeling.

Volume (Year): 32 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 64-80

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:32:y::i:1:p:64-80

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735

Related research

Keywords: Growth Long run Projections Human capital Cohorts;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Rahul Anand & Kevin C. Cheng & Sidra Rehman & Longmei Zhang, 2014. "Potential Growth in Emerging Asia," IMF Working Papers 14/02, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Romain Bouis & Romain Duval & Fabrice Murtin, 2011. "The Policy and Institutional Drivers of Economic Growth Across OECD and Non-OECD Economies: New Evidence from Growth Regressions," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 843, OECD Publishing.
  3. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2013. "Modelling the world economy at the 2050 horizon," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 21(4), pages 617-654, October.
  4. Åsa Johansson & Yvan Guillemette & Fabrice Murtin & David Turner & Giuseppe Nicoletti & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Guillaume Bousquet & Francesca Spinelli, 2012. "Looking to 2060: Long-Term Global Growth Prospects: A Going for Growth Report," OECD Economic Policy Papers 3, OECD Publishing.
  5. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2012. "The Great Shift: Macroeconomic projections for the world economy at the 2050 horizon," Working Papers 2012-03, CEPII research center.
  6. Åsa Johansson & Yvan Guillemette & Fabrice Murtin & David Turner & Giuseppe Nicoletti & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Philip Bagnoli & Guillaume Bousquet & Francesca Spinelli, 2013. "Long-Term Growth Scenarios," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1000, OECD Publishing.
  7. Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré, 2013. "Opening a Pandora's Box: Modelling World Trade Patterns at the 2035 Horizon," Working Papers 2013-22, CEPII research center.
  8. Murillo, Inés P. & Rahona-López, Marta & Salinas-Jiménez, Maria del Mar, 2012. "Effects of educational mismatch on private returns to education: An analysis of the Spanish case (1995–2006)," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 646-659.
  9. Christian MORRISSON & Fabrice MURTIN, 2011. "L’inégalité de revenu moyen entre pays (1700-2030)," Working Papers P25, FERDI.
  10. Crafts, Nicholas & O’Rourke, Kevin Hjortshøj, 2014. "Twentieth Century Growth*This research has received funding from the European Research Council under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) / ERC grant agreement no. 249546," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 6, pages 263-346 Elsevier.
  11. Peter Jarrett, 2012. "The Long-term Outlook for Productivity and Per Capita Income Growth for Canada: A Comparison with Selected G-20 Countries," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 24, pages 85-96, Fall.
  12. Christian MORRISSON & Fabrice MURTIN, 2011. "Average income inequality between countries (1700-2030)," Working Papers P25, FERDI.
  13. Nir Y. Krakauer, 2014. "Economic Growth Assumptions in Climate and Energy Policy," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(3), pages 1448-1461, March.
  14. Kumar, Saten & Pacheco, Gail, 2012. "What determines the long run growth rate in Kenya?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 705-718.
  15. Shekhar Aiyar & Romain A Duval & Damien Puy & Yiqun Wu & Longmei Zhang, 2013. "Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap," IMF Working Papers 13/71, International Monetary Fund.
  16. repec:hal:journl:hal-00975545 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2014. "The Great Shift : Macroeconomic projections For the World Economy at the 2050 Horizon," Working Papers hal-00962464, HAL.
  18. Schwanitz, Valeria Jana & Piontek, Franziska & Bertram, Christoph & Luderer, Gunnar, 2014. "Long-term climate policy implications of phasing out fossil fuel subsidies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 882-894.
  19. Halkos, George E., 2011. "Nonparametric modelling of biodiversity: Determinants of threatened species," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 618-635, July.
  20. Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré & Maria Priscila Ramos, 2013. "MIRAGE-e: A General Equilibrium Long-term Path of the World Economy," Working Papers 2013-39, CEPII research center.
  21. Galo Nuño & Cristina Pulido & Rubén Segura-Cayuela, 2012. "Long-run growth and demographic prospects in advanced economies," Banco de Espa�a Occasional Papers 1206, Banco de Espa�a.

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