Assessing the potential cost of a failed Doha Round
AbstractThis study offers new conclusions on the economic cost of a failed Doha Development Agenda (DDA). We assess potential outcome of the Doha Round as well as four protectionist scenarios using the MIRAGE Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. In a scenario where applied tariffs of World Trade Organization (WTO) economies would go up to currently bound tariff rates, world trade would decrease by 7.7 % and world welfare by US$353 billion. The economic cost of a failed DDA is here evaluated by the difference between a cooperative scenario (DDA) and a protectionist one (US$412 billion in terms of welfare). Another point of view is to compare a resort to protectionism when the DDA is implemented with a resort to protectionism when the DDA is not implemented. The findings show that this trade agreement could prevent the potential reduction of US$809 billion of trade and, therefore, acts as an efficient multilateral 'preventive' scheme against the adverse consequences of trade "beggar-thy-neighbor" policies.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal World Trade Review.
Volume (Year): 9 (2010)
Issue (Month): 02 (April)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: The Edinburgh Building, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 2RU UK
Fax: +44 (0)1223 325150
Web page: http://journals.cambridge.org/jid_WTRProvider-Email:email@example.com
Other versions of this item:
- Antoine Bouet, 2010. "Assessing the potential cost of a failed Doha round," Working Papers hal-00637583, HAL.
- F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
- F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné, 2006. "A Quantitative Assessment of the Outcome of the Doha Development Agenda," Working Papers 2006-10, CEPII research center.
- Jakob B. Madsen, 2001. "Trade Barriers and the Collapse of World Trade During the Great Depression," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 848-868, April.
- Kym Anderson & Will Martin, 2005.
"Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda,"
Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers
2005-17, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
- Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2006. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6889, July.
- Kym Anderson & Will Martin, 2005. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(9), pages 1301-1327, 09.
- Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will, 2005. "Agricultural trade reform and the Doha development agenda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3607, The World Bank.
- Sébastien Jean & David Laborde & Will Martin, 2008.
"Choosing Sensitive Agricultural Products in Trade Negotiations,"
2008-18, CEPII research center.
- Jean, Sebastien & Laborde, David & Martin, Will, 2008. "Choosing sensitive agricultural products in trade negotiations:," IFPRI discussion papers 788, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Will Martin & Patrick Messerlin, 2007. "Why is it so difficult? Trade liberalization under the Doha Agenda," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 347-366, Autumn.
- Yvan Decreux & Hugo Valin, 2007.
"MIRAGE, Updated Version of the Model for Trade Policy Analysis: Focus on Agriculture and Dynamics,"
2007-15, CEPII research center.
- Decreux, Yvan & Valin, Hugo, 2007. "MIRAGE, Updated Version of the Model for Trade Policy Analysis: Focus on Agriculture and Dynamics," Working Papers 7284, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
- Bouet, Antoine & Decreux, Yvan & Fontagne, Lionel & Jean, Sebastien & Laborde, David, 2005. "A Consistent Picture of Applied Protection Across the World," Working Papers 18859, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
- Houssein Guimbard & David Laborde Debucquet & Cristina Mitaritonna, 2009.
"A Picture of Tariff Protection Across the World in 2004 MAcMap-HS6, Version 2,"
2009-22, CEPII research center.
- Boumellassa, Houssein & Debucquet, David Laborde & Mitaritonna, Cristina, 2009. "A picture of tariff protection across the World in 2004: MAcMap-HS6, Version 2," IFPRI discussion papers 903, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Antoine BouÃ«t & Yvan Decreux & Lionel FontagnÃ© & SÃ©bastien Jean & David Laborde, 2008.
"Assessing applied protection across the world,"
26327, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, France.
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Jeffrey J. Schott, 2009. "Buy American: Bad for Jobs, Worse for Reputation," Policy Briefs PB09-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Antoine Bou�t & Simon Mevel & David Orden, 2007. "More or Less Ambition in the Doha Round: Winners and Losers from Trade Liberalisation with a Development Perspective," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(8), pages 1253-1280, 08.
- Sébastien Jean & David Laborde & Will Martin, 2005. "Consequences of Alternative Formulas for Agricultural Tariff Cuts," Working Papers 2005-15, CEPII research center.
- Bairoch, Paul, 1995. "Economics and World History," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226034638.
- Matthews, Alan, 2013. "DOHA Negotiations on Agriculture and Future of the WTO Multilateral Trade System," 135th Seminar, August 28-30, 2013, Belgrade, Serbia 160370, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Popa, Diana, 2011.
"Runda Doha: început fără sfârşit
[Doha Round: the endless beginning]," MPRA Paper 28764, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Feb 2011.
- Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné, 2013. "What Did Happen in the DDA? Quantifying the Role of Negotiation Modalities," Working Papers 2013-38, CEPII research center.
- Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2013.
"Estimating Effects of Price-Distorting Policies Using Alternative Distortions Databases,"
Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling,
- Kym Anderson & Will Martin & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2012. "Estimating Effects of Price-distorting Policies Using Alternative Distortions Databases," Departmental Working Papers 2012-09, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
- Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2012. "Estimating effects of price-distorting policies using alternative distortions databases," CEPR Discussion Papers 9083, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hertel, Thomas, 2013. "Global Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Global Trade Analysis Project Framework," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
- repec:laf:wpaper:201003 is not listed on IDEAS
- Antoine Bou�t & Guillaume P. Gru�re, 2011.
"Refining Opportunity Cost Estimates of Not Adopting GM Cotton: An Application in Seven Sub-Saharan African Countries,"
Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy,
Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(2), pages 260-279.
- Antoine Bouet & Guillaume Gruere, 2010. "Refining opportunity cost estimates of not adopting GM cotton : An application in seven sub-saharan african countries," Working Papers hal-00637587, HAL.
- Bouet, Antoine & Laborde, David, 2010.
"Eight Years of Doha Trade Talks: Where Do We Stand?,"
eJADE: electronic Journal of Agricultural and Development Economics,
Food and Agriculture Organization, Agricultural and Development Economics Division, vol. 11(2).
- Antoine Bouet & David Laborde, 2010. "Eight years of Doha trade talks : where do we stand," Working Papers hal-00637589, HAL.
- Gouel, Christophe, 2013.
"Food price volatility and domestic stabilization policies in developing countries,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
6393, The World Bank.
- Christophe Gouel, 2013. "Food Price Volatility and Domestic Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christophe Gouel, 2013. "Food Price Volatility and Domestic Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 18934, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bouet, Antoine & Laborde Debucquet, David, 2010. "Eight years of Doha trade talks," IFPRI discussion papers 997, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Gouel, Christophe & Mitaritonna, Cristina & Ramos, Maria Priscila, 2011.
"Sensitive products in the Doha negotiations: The case of European and Japanese market access,"
Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2395-2403.
- Christophe Gouel & Cristina Mitaritonna & Maria Priscila Ramos, 2010. "The Art of Exceptions: Sensitive Products in the Doha Negotiations," Working Papers 2010-20, CEPII research center.
- repec:laf:wpaper:201002 is not listed on IDEAS
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Keith Waters).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.