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The potential cost of a failed doha round:

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Author Info

  • Bouet, Antoine
  • Debucquet, David Laborde

Abstract

"This study offers new conclusions on the economic cost of a failed Doha Round. The first section is devoted to an analysis of how trade policies evolve in the long and medium runs. We show that even under normal economic conditions, policymakers modify tariffs to cope with the evolution of world markets. We then use the MIRAGE Computable General Equilibrium model to assess the potential outcome of the Doha Round, and then examine four protectionist scenarios. Under a scenario where applied tariffs of major economies increase up to the currently bound tariff rates, we find that world trade decreases by 7.7 percent and world welfare drops by US$353 bn. We then compare a resort to protectionism when the Doha Development Agenda (DDA) is implemented versus a resort to protectionism when the DDA is not implemented. We find that this trade agreement could prevent the potential loss of US$ 809 bn of trade, and could therefore act as an efficient multilateral insurance scheme against the adverse consequences of “beggar-thy-neighbor” trade policies." from authors' abstract

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in its series IFPRI discussion papers with number 886.

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Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:886

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Related research

Keywords: Trade negotiations; Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling; Bound duties; Domestic support; Globalization; Markets; Doha Development Agenda;

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References

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  1. Jean, Sebastien & Laborde, David & Martin, Will, 2008. "Choosing sensitive agricultural products in trade negotiations:," IFPRI discussion papers 788, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  2. Boumellassa, Houssein & Debucquet, David Laborde & Mitaritonna, Cristina, 2009. "A picture of tariff protection across the World in 2004: MAcMap-HS6, Version 2," IFPRI discussion papers 903, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  3. Berisha-Krasniqi, Valdete & Bouet, Antoine & Laborde, David & Mevel, Simon, 2008. "The development promise: Can the doha development agenda deliver for least developed countries?," Research briefs 14, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  4. Jakob B. Madsen, 2001. "Trade Barriers and the Collapse of World Trade During the Great Depression," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 848-868, April.
  5. Antoine Bou�t & Simon Mevel & David Orden, 2007. "More or Less Ambition in the Doha Round: Winners and Losers from Trade Liberalisation with a Development Perspective," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(8), pages 1253-1280, 08.
  6. Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné, 2006. "A Quantitative Assessment of the Outcome of the Doha Development Agenda," Working Papers 2006-10, CEPII research center.
  7. Yvan Decreux & Hugo Valin, 2007. "MIRAGE, Updated Version of the Model for Trade Policy Analysis: Focus on Agriculture and Dynamics," Working Papers 2007-15, CEPII research center.
  8. Bouet, Antoine & Decreux, Yvan & Fontagne, Lionel & Jean, Sebastien & Laborde, David, 2005. "A Consistent Picture of Applied Protection Across the World," Working Papers 18859, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
  9. Tower, Edward, 1975. "The Optimum Quota and Retaliation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 623-30, October.
  10. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Jeffrey J. Schott, 2009. "Buy American: Bad for Jobs, Worse for Reputation," Policy Briefs PB09-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  11. Will Martin & Patrick Messerlin, 2007. "Why is it so difficult? Trade liberalization under the Doha Agenda," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 347-366, Autumn.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné, 2011. "Economic Impact of Potential Outcome of the DDA," Working Papers 2011-23, CEPII research center.
  2. Antoine Bouët & David Laborde, 2010. "Why is the Doha Development Agenda Failing? And What Can Be Done? A Computable General Equilibrium–Game Theoretical Approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(11), pages 1486-1516, November.
  3. Willenbockel, Dirk, 2009. "From overhang to hangover: consequences of protectionist responses to the global crisis for low-income countries," MPRA Paper 16100, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Popa, Diana, 2011. "Runda Doha: început fără sfârşit
    [Doha Round: the endless beginning]
    ," MPRA Paper 28764, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Feb 2011.
  5. Patrick A. Messerlin, 2011. "World trade regime, World Trade Organization and large-schale crises," STUDIES IN TRADE AND INVESTMENT, in: Trade-led growth: A sound strategy for Asia, chapter 2 United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
  6. Hoekman, Bernard & Martin, Will & Mattoo, Aaditya, 2010. "Conclude Doha: it matters!," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(03), pages 505-530, July.
  7. Shamim Shakur & Allan N Rae, 2012. "The impact of comprehensive tariff reductions in multilateral trade: further results from computable general equilibrium simulations," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 182-189.
  8. Wolfe, Robert, 2010. "Endogenous Learning and Consensual Understanding in Multilateral Negotiations: Arguing and Bargaining in the WTO," Working Papers 90885, Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy Research Network.
  9. Gouel, Christophe & Mitaritonna, Cristina & Ramos, Maria Priscila, 2011. "Sensitive products in the Doha negotiations: The case of European and Japanese market access," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2395-2403.
  10. Diana Popa, 2012. "The Collapse of the Doha Round and a Possible Completion of Negotiations," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 15(43), pages 165-188, March.
  11. Sebastian Saez, 2009. "Managing Trade Policy During the Economic Crisis," World Bank Other Operational Studies 11113, The World Bank.

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