The potential cost of a failed doha round:
Abstract"This study offers new conclusions on the economic cost of a failed Doha Round. The first section is devoted to an analysis of how trade policies evolve in the long and medium runs. We show that even under normal economic conditions, policymakers modify tariffs to cope with the evolution of world markets. We then use the MIRAGE Computable General Equilibrium model to assess the potential outcome of the Doha Round, and then examine four protectionist scenarios. Under a scenario where applied tariffs of major economies increase up to the currently bound tariff rates, we find that world trade decreases by 7.7 percent and world welfare drops by US$353 bn. We then compare a resort to protectionism when the Doha Development Agenda (DDA) is implemented versus a resort to protectionism when the DDA is not implemented. We find that this trade agreement could prevent the potential loss of US$ 809 bn of trade, and could therefore act as an efficient multilateral insurance scheme against the adverse consequences of “beggar-thy-neighbor” trade policies." from authors' abstract
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in its series IFPRI discussion papers with number 886.
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Trade negotiations; Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling; Bound duties; Domestic support; Globalization; Markets; Doha Development Agenda;
Other versions of this item:
- Antoine BOUET & David LABORDE, 2009. "The potential cost of a Failed Doha Round," Working Papers 2, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Jul 2009.
- Bouet, Antoine & Laborde, David, 2008. "The potential cost of a failed Doha Round:," Issue briefs 56, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- NEP-ALL-2009-10-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2009-10-03 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-INT-2009-10-03 (International Trade)
- NEP-MIC-2009-10-03 (Microeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné, 2006. "A Quantitative Assessment of the Outcome of the Doha Development Agenda," Working Papers 2006-10, CEPII research center.
- Sébastien Jean & David Laborde & Will Martin, 2008.
"Choosing Sensitive Agricultural Products in Trade Negotiations,"
2008-18, CEPII research center.
- Jean, Sebastien & Laborde, David & Martin, Will, 2008. "Choosing sensitive agricultural products in trade negotiations:," IFPRI discussion papers 788, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Berisha-Krasniqi, Valdete & Bouet, Antoine & Laborde, David & Mevel, Simon, 2008. "The development promise: Can the doha development agenda deliver for least developed countries?," Research briefs 14, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Jakob B. Madsen, 2001. "Trade Barriers and the Collapse of World Trade During the Great Depression," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 848-868, April.
- Yvan Decreux & Hugo Valin, 2007.
"MIRAGE, Updated Version of the Model for Trade Policy Analysis: Focus on Agriculture and Dynamics,"
2007-15, CEPII research center.
- Decreux, Yvan & Valin, Hugo, 2007. "MIRAGE, Updated Version of the Model for Trade Policy Analysis: Focus on Agriculture and Dynamics," Working Papers 7284, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Jeffrey J. Schott, 2009. "Buy American: Bad for Jobs, Worse for Reputation," Policy Briefs PB09-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Will Martin & Patrick Messerlin, 2007. "Why is it so difficult? Trade liberalization under the Doha Agenda," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 347-366, Autumn.
- Houssein Guimbard & David Laborde Debucquet & Cristina Mitaritonna, 2009.
"A Picture of Tariff Protection Across the World in 2004 MAcMap-HS6, Version 2,"
2009-22, CEPII research center.
- Boumellassa, Houssein & Debucquet, David Laborde & Mitaritonna, Cristina, 2009. "A picture of tariff protection across the World in 2004: MAcMap-HS6, Version 2," IFPRI discussion papers 903, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Antoine Bou�t & Simon Mevel & David Orden, 2007. "More or Less Ambition in the Doha Round: Winners and Losers from Trade Liberalisation with a Development Perspective," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(8), pages 1253-1280, 08.
- Bouet, Antoine & Decreux, Yvan & Fontagne, Lionel & Jean, Sebastien & Laborde, David, 2005. "A Consistent Picture of Applied Protection Across the World," Working Papers 18859, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
- Tower, Edward, 1975. "The Optimum Quota and Retaliation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 623-30, October.
- Gouel, Christophe & Mitaritonna, Cristina & Ramos, Maria Priscila, 2011.
"Sensitive products in the Doha negotiations: The case of European and Japanese market access,"
Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2395-2403.
- Christophe Gouel & Cristina Mitaritonna & Maria Priscila Ramos, 2010. "The Art of Exceptions: Sensitive Products in the Doha Negotiations," Working Papers 2010-20, CEPII research center.
- Hoekman, Bernard & Martin, Will & Mattoo, Aaditya, 2010.
"Conclude Doha: It Matters!,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7788, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Wolfe, Robert, 2010. "Endogenous Learning and Consensual Understanding in Multilateral Negotiations: Arguing and Bargaining in the WTO," Working Papers 90885, Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy Research Network.
- Diana Popa, 2012. "The Collapse of the Doha Round and a Possible Completion of Negotiations," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 15(43), pages 165-188, March.
- Sebastian Saez, 2009. "Managing Trade Policy During the Economic Crisis," World Bank Other Operational Studies 11113, The World Bank.
- Antoine Bouët & David Laborde, 2010.
"Why is the Doha Development Agenda Failing? And What Can Be Done? A Computable General Equilibrium–Game Theoretical Approach,"
The World Economy,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(11), pages 1486-1516, November.
- Bouet, Antoine & Laborde, David, 2009. "Why is the Doha development agenda failing? And what can be done?: A computable general equilibrium-game theoretical approach," IFPRI discussion papers 877, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Patrick A. Messerlin, 2011. "World trade regime, World Trade Organization and large-schale crises," STUDIES IN TRADE AND INVESTMENT, in: Trade-led growth: A sound strategy for Asia, chapter 2 United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
- Popa, Diana, 2011.
"Runda Doha: început fără sfârşit
[Doha Round: the endless beginning]," MPRA Paper 28764, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Feb 2011.
- Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné, 2011. "Economic Impact of Potential Outcome of the DDA," Working Papers 2011-23, CEPII research center.
- Shamim Shakur & Allan N Rae, 2012. "The impact of comprehensive tariff reductions in multilateral trade: further results from computable general equilibrium simulations," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 182-189.
- Willenbockel, Dirk, 2009. "From overhang to hangover: consequences of protectionist responses to the global crisis for low-income countries," MPRA Paper 16100, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.