The potential cost of a failed doha round:
Abstract"This study offers new conclusions on the economic cost of a failed Doha Round. The first section is devoted to an analysis of how trade policies evolve in the long and medium runs. We show that even under normal economic conditions, policymakers modify tariffs to cope with the evolution of world markets. We then use the MIRAGE Computable General Equilibrium model to assess the potential outcome of the Doha Round, and then examine four protectionist scenarios. Under a scenario where applied tariffs of major economies increase up to the currently bound tariff rates, we find that world trade decreases by 7.7 percent and world welfare drops by US$353 bn. We then compare a resort to protectionism when the Doha Development Agenda (DDA) is implemented versus a resort to protectionism when the DDA is not implemented. We find that this trade agreement could prevent the potential loss of US$ 809 bn of trade, and could therefore act as an efficient multilateral insurance scheme against the adverse consequences of “beggar-thy-neighbor” trade policies." from authors' abstract
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in its series IFPRI discussion papers with number 886.
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Trade negotiations; Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling; Bound duties; Domestic support; Globalization; Markets; Doha Development Agenda;
Other versions of this item:
- Antoine BOUET & David LABORDE, 2009. "The potential cost of a Failed Doha Round," Working Papers 2, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Jul 2009.
- Bouet, Antoine & Laborde, David, 2008. "The potential cost of a failed Doha Round:," Issue briefs 56, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- NEP-ALL-2009-10-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2009-10-03 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-INT-2009-10-03 (International Trade)
- NEP-MIC-2009-10-03 (Microeconomics)
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