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Eight years of Doha trade talks

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  • Bouet, Antoine
  • Laborde Debucquet, David

Abstract

In 2001, the World Trade Organization launched a highly ambitious program of multilateral liberalization. Eight years later, concluding the negotiations is uncertain, though an opportunity still exists. Since 2001, many proposals on market access have been brought to the negotiating table by the E.U., the United States, and the G-20. Because it is politically and economically acceptable to many parties, the final December 2008 package could be the basis of an agreement. An evaluation of these various proposals shows how trade negotiations have been following countries’ strategic interests. In eight years, the ambition of the formula to reduce agricultural market access tariffs has increased, but flexibilities added to accommodate domestic political constraints have offset delivered market access. The December 2008 package would reduce these average tariffs by 25 percent, a reduction very close to the one implied by the Harbinson and Girard proposals of 2003. This has to be compared with the 73 percent reduction in world agricultural protection by the very ambitious 2005 U.S. proposal. The 2005 G-20 and E.U. proposals were intermediate outcomes. The December 2008 package implies a reduction of agricultural protection by 6 percentage points in high-income countries and 0.5 percentage points in middle-income countries. If the U.S. proposal had been applied, these figures would have been 12.4 and 4.7, respectively. Different scenarios imply losses for developing countries, reflecting eroding preferences and rising terms of trade for imported commodities, including food products. We study how this trade reform can be more development-friendly.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in its series IFPRI discussion papers with number 997.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:997

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Keywords: Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling; Developing countries; Trade negotiations; WTO Doha round;

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  1. Jean, Sebastien & Laborde, David & Martin, Will, 2008. "Choosing sensitive agricultural products in trade negotiations:," IFPRI discussion papers 788, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  2. Houssein Guimbard & David Laborde Debucquet & Cristina Mitaritonna, 2009. "A Picture of Tariff Protection Across the World in 2004 MAcMap-HS6, Version 2," Working Papers 2009-22, CEPII research center.
  3. Antoine Bouet, 2010. "Assessing the potential cost of a failed Doha round," Working Papers hal-00637583, HAL.
  4. Bouet, Antoine & Mishra, Santosh & Roy, Devesh, 2008. "Does Africa trade less than it should, and if so, why?: The role of market access and domestic factors," IFPRI discussion papers 770, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  5. Jean, Sébastien & Guérin, Jean-Louis & Decreux, Yvan & Bchir, Mohamed Hedi, 2002. "MIRAGE, a Computable General Equilibrium Model for Trade Policy Analysis," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/6497, Paris Dauphine University.
  6. Decreux, Yvan & Valin, Hugo, 2007. "MIRAGE, Updated Version of the Model for Trade Policy Analysis: Focus on Agriculture and Dynamics," Working Papers 7284, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
  7. Antoine Bouët, David Laborde Debucquet,Elisa Dienesch, and Kimberly Elliott, 2010. "The Costs and Benefits of Duty-Free, Quota-Free Market Access for Poor Countries: Who and What Matters," Working Papers 206, Center for Global Development.
  8. Bouet, Antoine & Decreux, Yvan & Fontagne, Lionel & Jean, Sebastien & Laborde, David, 2005. "A Consistent Picture of Applied Protection Across the World," Working Papers 18859, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
  9. Berisha-Krasniqi, Valdete & Bouet, Antoine & Laborde, David & Mevel, Simon, 2008. "The development promise: Can the doha development agenda deliver for least developed countries?," Research briefs 14, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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Cited by:
  1. Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné, 2011. "Economic Impact of Potential Outcome of the DDA," Working Papers 2011-23, CEPII research center.
  2. Colyer, Dale, 2010. "Environmental Provisions in Recent Regional Trade Agreements (2008 & 2009)," eJADE: electronic Journal of Agricultural and Development Economics, Food and Agriculture Organization, Agricultural and Development Economics Division, vol. 11(1).

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