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Why is the Doha development agenda failing? And what can be done?: A computable general equilibrium-game theoretical approach

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Author Info
Bouet, Antoine
Laborde, David

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Abstract

"We herein use a world Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate 143 potential trade reforms and seek solutions to the issues hampering progress in the Doha Development Agenda (DDA). Inside the domain defined by all these possible outcomes, we apply the axiomatic theory of bargaining and select the Nash solution of cooperative games. The solutions vary according to the objective functions adopted by the trade negotiators. When real income is the objective and services are excluded, or when optimizing terms of trade is the objective, the Nash solution is the status quo. Trade liberalization is feasible only when the negotiators focus on national exports or Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Our assessment of some possible solutions reveals that excluding members having a GDP below a certain threshold improves the bargaining process, regardless of the governments' objective. Formation of coalition, such as the G20, constitutes an option for its members to block outcomes imposed by rich members. We also find that side payments may be a solution, but represent a very high share of the global income gain." from authors' abstract

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Paper provided by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in its series IFPRI discussion papers with number 877.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:877

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Related research
Keywords: Trade negotiations; Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling; Nash solution; Side payments; Cooperative games; Globalization; Markets; Doha Development Agenda;

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  1. Mohamed Hedi Bchir & Sébastien Jean & David Laborde, 2006. "Binding Overhang and Tariff-Cutting Formulas," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 142(2), pages 207-232, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Joseph Francois & Hans van Meijl & Frank van Tongeren, 2005. "Trade liberalization in the Doha Development Round," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 20(42), pages 349-391, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Nash, John, 1953. "Two-Person Cooperative Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 21(1), pages 128-140, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Tyers, Rod, 1990. "Implicit policy preferences and the assessment of negotiable trade policy reforms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1399-1426, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. van Tongeren, Frank & van Meijl, Hans & Surry, Yves, 2001. "Global models applied to agricultural and trade policies: a review and assessment," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 149-172, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Kyle Bagwell & Robert W. Staiger, 1999. "An Economic Theory of GATT," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 215-248, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Decreux, Yvan & Valin, Hugo, 2007. "MIRAGE, Updated Version of the Model for Trade Policy Analysis: Focus on Agriculture and Dynamics," Working Papers 7284, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Harry G. Johnson, 1965. "An Economic Theory of Protectionism, Tariff Bargaining, and the Formation of Customs Unions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73, pages 256. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-20.

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