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More or Less Ambition in the Doha Round: Winners and Losers from Trade Liberalisation with a Development Perspective

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  • Antoine Bou�t
  • Simon Mevel
  • David Orden

Abstract

What is at stake in the standoff and suspension of the Doha Round of trade talks? What impact would an agreement based on greater or lesser levels of ambition have on developing countries, whose economies are relatively dependent on agriculture? Using the MIRAGE computable general equilibrium model of the global economy, in this article we compare different scenarios for the Doha agricultural and NAMA negotiations, taking real numbers from the proposals on the table from the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) in December 2005. The results for both scenarios demonstrate the high stakes for successful completion of this negotiation given the positions articulated by the countries involved. A cooperative reform outcome by the US and the EU - based on the most ambitious components of their negotiating proposals - delivers noticeably more benefits than an unambitious outcome. We measure the degree of ambition in each scenario by the construction of a Mercantilist Trade Restrictiveness Index and focus the analysis on the impacts on developing countries. Copyright 2007 The Authors Journal compilation 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd .

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal World Economy.

Volume (Year): 30 (2007)
Issue (Month): 8 (08)
Pages: 1253-1280

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Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:30:y:2007:i:8:p:1253-1280

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Cited by:
  1. Christophe Gouel & Cristina Mitaritonna & Maria Priscila Ramos, 2010. "The Art of Exceptions: Sensitive Products in the Doha Negotiations," Working Papers 2010-20, CEPII research center.
  2. von Braun, Joachim, 2007. "The world food situation: New driving forces and required actions," Food policy reports 18, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  3. Tina Beuchelt & Detlef Virchow, 2012. "Food sovereignty or the human right to adequate food: which concept serves better as international development policy for global hunger and poverty reduction?," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 259-273, June.
  4. Shafaeddin, Mehdi, 2008. "The political Economy of WTO with special reference to NAMA Negotiations," MPRA Paper 10894, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Antoine BOUET & David LABORDE, 2009. "The potential cost of a Failed Doha Round," Working Papers 2, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Jul 2009.
  6. Antoine Bouet, 2010. "Assessing the potential cost of a failed Doha round," Working Papers hal-00637583, HAL.
  7. Butt, Muhammad Shoaib & Bandara, Jayatilleke S., 2008. "National and Regional Impacts of Increasing Non-Agricultural Market Access by Developing Countries – the Case of Pakistan," Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(2), pages 277-311, September.
  8. Bostan, Ionel & Grosu, Veronica, 2011. "General Equilibrium Dynamic Models and the Doha Round Impact on Underdeveloped Economies," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 159-174, March.
  9. repec:laf:wpaper:201001 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Antoine Bou�t & Guillaume P. Gru�re, 2011. "Refining Opportunity Cost Estimates of Not Adopting GM Cotton: An Application in Seven Sub-Saharan African Countries," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(2), pages 260-279.
  11. Fugazza, Marco, 2007. "A new geography of preferences for Sub-Saharan African countries in a globalizing trading system," MPRA Paper 11575, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Huan-Niemi, Ellen & Kerkela, Leena & Lehtonen, Heikki & Niemi, Jyrki S., 2009. "Implications of Trade Liberalization and Domestic Reforms on EU Agricultural Markets," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association (IAMA), vol. 12(4).
  13. Shafaeddin, Mehdi, 2009. "NAMA as a Tool of De-industrialization of Africa," MPRA Paper 15050, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. repec:laf:wpaper:201002 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré, 2013. "Opening a Pandora's Box: Modelling World Trade Patterns at the 2035 Horizon," Working Papers 2013-22, CEPII research center.

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