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A Structural Land-Use Analysis of Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change: A Proactive Approach

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  • Kaminski, Jonathan
  • Kan, Iddo
  • Fleischer, Aliza

Abstract

This article proposes a proactive approach for analyzing agricultural adaptation to climate change based on a structural land-use model wherein farmers maximize profit by allocating their land between crop-technology bundles. The profitability of the bundles is a function of four technological attributes via which climate variables‟ effect is channeled: yield potential; input requirements; yields' sensitivity to input use; and farm-level management costs. Proactive adaptation measures are derived by identifying the technological attributes via which climate variables reduce overall agricultural profitability, despite adaptation by land reallocation among bundles. By applying the model to Israel, we find that long-term losses stem from yield potential reductions driven by forecasted increases in temperature, implying that adaptation efforts should target more heat-tolerant crop varieties and technologies.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Department of Agricultural Economics and Management in its series Discussion Papers with number 120076.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ags:huaedp:120076

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Postal: Faculty of Agriculture, Food and Environmental Quality Sciences Hebrew University of Jerusalem, P.O. Box 12, Rehovot 76100
Phone: 08-9481230
Fax: 08-9466267
Web page: http://departments.agri.huji.ac.il/economics/indexe.html
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Keywords: adaptation; agricultural land use; climate change; crop-technology bundles; Land Economics/Use;

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  1. Cline, William R, 1996. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1309-11, December.
  2. Lichtenberg, Erik & Zilberman, David & Bogen, Kenneth T., 1989. "Regulating environmental health risks under uncertainty: Groundwater contamination in California," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 22-34, July.
  3. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-71, September.
  4. Douglas J. Miller & Andrew J. Plantinga, 1999. "Modeling Land Use Decisions with Aggregate Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(1), pages 180-194.
  5. Ian W. Hardie & Peter J. Parks, 1997. "Land Use with Heterogeneous Land Quality: An Application of an Area Base Model," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(2), pages 299-310.
  6. Fleischer, Aliza & Lichtman, Ivgenia & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2007. "Climate change, irrigation, and Israeli agriculture : will warming be harmful ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4135, The World Bank.
  7. Miller, Douglas & Plantinga, Andrew J., 1999. "Modeling Land Use Decisions with Aggregate Data," Staff General Research Papers 1487, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  8. Wolfram Schlenker & W. Michael Hanemann & Anthony C. Fisher, 2005. "Will U.S. Agriculture Really Benefit from Global Warming? Accounting for Irrigation in the Hedonic Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 395-406, March.
  9. Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2008. "Crop switching as a strategy for adapting to climate change," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 2(1), March.
  10. Seo, S. Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2008. "An analysis of crop choice: Adapting to climate change in South American farms," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 109-116, August.
  11. Rulon D. Pope & Richard E. Just, 2003. "Distinguishing Errors in Measurement from Errors in Optimization," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(2), pages 348-358.
  12. Robert K. Kaufmann & Seth E. Snell, 1997. "A Biophysical Model of Corn Yield: Integrating Climatic and Social Determinants," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(1), pages 178-190.
  13. Aliza Fleischer & Yacov Tsur, 2009. "The Amenity Value of Agricultural Landscape and Rural-Urban Land Allocation," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 132-153.
  14. Pradeep Kurukulasuriya & Robert Mendelsohn & Rashid Hassan & James Benhin & Temesgen Deressa & Mbaye Diop & Helmy Mohamed Eid & K. Yerfi Fosu & Glwadys Gbetibouo & Suman Jain & Ali Mahamadou & Renneth, 2006. "Will African Agriculture Survive Climate Change?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 20(3), pages 367-388.
  15. Alain Carpentier & Elodie Letort, 2009. "Modeling acreage decisions within the multinomial Logit framework," Working Papers SMART - LERECO 09-17, INRA UMR SMART.
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