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CAP Effects on Agricultural Investment Demand in Europe

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  • Guastella, G.
  • Moro, D.
  • Sckokai, P.
  • Veneziani, M.

Abstract

The paper develops a comparative analysis, among selected European Union Member States, of the investment demand, for farm buildings and machinery and equipment, of a sample of specialised arable crop farms as determined - inter alia - by different types and levels of Common Agricultual Policy (CAP) support. The empirical analysis investigates the role of long and short run determinants of investment levels as well as accounts for the presence of irregularities in the cost adjustment function due to the existence of threshold-type behaviours. Throughout the estimated models a consistent and significant long-run dynamic adjustment towards lower levels of the farms' capital stocks is detected. The effect of CAP support on both types of investments is positive, although seldom significant. The elasticities of average net investment with respect to CAP payments are employed to simulate the effects of the recently proposed, reductions in the Pillar I CAP Direct Payments (DPs). Since these reform options imply, almost exclusively, a reduction in the level of support granted through DPs, simulated effects largely respect the expectation of worsening of the farm investment prospects for both asset types (i.e., a larger negative investment or a smaller positive one). Notable exceptions concern investment in machinery and equipment in France and Italy which improve , irrespectively of the magnitude of the implemented cuts in DPs.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA) in its series 2013 Second Congress, June 6-7, 2013, Parma, Italy with number 149758.

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Date of creation: Jun 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aiea13:149758

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Web page: http://www.aieaa.org/
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Keywords: farm investment; threshold models; simulations; FADN data; common agricultural policy; Agricultural and Food Policy; C23; C53; D92; Q12;

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  1. Guastella, Giovanni & Moro, Daniele & Sckokai, Paolo & Veneziani, Mario, 2013. "Investment behaviour of EU arable crop farms in selected EU countries and the impact of policy reforms," Working Papers 152083, Factor Markets, Centre for European Policy Studies.
  2. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
  3. Savvides, Andreas & Stengos, Thanasis, 2000. "Income inequality and economic development: evidence from the threshold regression model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 207-212, November.
  4. Andrews, Donald W. K. & Buchinsky, Moshe, 2001. "Evaluation of a three-step method for choosing the number of bootstrap repetitions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 345-386, July.
  5. Bruce E. Hansen, 1997. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing and inference," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 365, Boston College Department of Economics.
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  7. Serra, Teresa & Stefanou, Spiro E. & Gil, Jose Maria & Featherstone, Allen M., 2008. "Investment rigidity and policy measures," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6511, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  8. Andros Kourtellos & Thanasis Stengos & Chih Ming Tan, 2008. "Structural Threshold Regression," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0717, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  9. Oecd, 2005. "Modelling the Impact of Agricultural Policies on Farm Investments under Uncertainty: The Case of the CAP Arable Crop Regime," OECD Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 5(11), pages 1-35.
  10. Abel, Andrew B & Eberly, Janice C, 1994. "A Unified Model of Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1369-84, December.
  11. Petrick, Martin & Kloss, Mathias, 2012. "Drivers of agricultural capital productivity in selected EU member states," Working Papers 132838, Factor Markets, Centre for European Policy Studies.
  12. Paolo Sckokai & Daniele Moro, 2009. "Modelling the impact of the CAP Single Farm Payment on farm investment and output," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 395-423, September.
  13. Guastella,Giovanni & Moro, Daniele & Sckokai, Paolo & Veneziani, Mario, 2013. "Investment behaviour of EU arable crop farms in selected EU countries and the impact of policy reforms," Factor Markets Working Papers 154, Centre for European Policy Studies.
  14. Donald W.K. Andrews & Moshe Y. Buchinsky, 2000. "On the Number of Bootstrap Repetitions for BC_a Confidence Intervals," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1250, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  15. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  16. Savvides, A. & Stengos, T., 2000. "Income Inequality and Economic Development: Evidence from the Threshold Regression Model," Working Papers 2000-2, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
  17. Silke Hüttel & Oliver Mu�hoff & Martin Odening, 2010. "Investment reluctance: irreversibility or imperfect capital markets?," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 37(1), pages 51-76, March.
  18. Brenda L. Boetel & Ruben Hoffmann & Donald J. Liu, 2007. "Estimating Investment Rigidity within a Threshold Regression Framework: The Case of U.S. Hog Production Sector," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(1), pages 36-51.
  19. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
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