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Is Yield Endogenous to Price? An Empirical Evaluation of Inter- and Intra-Seasonal Corn Yield Response

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  • Goodwin, Barry K.
  • Marra, Michele C.
  • Piggott, Nicholas E.
  • Mueller, Steffen

Abstract

An extensive empirical literature has examined the behavior of crop yields over time. Corn yields have been characterized by signficant increases reflecting an array of technological developments that have substantially boosted productivity. While much of the focus has been on modeling deterministic and possibly stochastic trends in yields over time, an equally important question involves the extent to which yield changes may occur in response to price. This paper addresses two dimensions of this issue. We first look at the extent to which realized yields (i.e., at harvest) tend to be influenced by planting{time quotes of post{harvest futures contracts. Second, we examine the potential for intra{seasonal responsiveness of yields to significant price swings. The latter response is especially important in light of recent arguments that weather offers identification through instruments that are completely exogenous to market conditions; a view often expressed in terms of a "natural experiment." We challenge this argument by finding that the potential does exist for yields to be affected by significant price changes that occur early in the growing season.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its series 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington with number 124884.

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Date of creation: 03 Jun 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea12:124884

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Keywords: Crop Production/Industries;

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  1. Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2010. "Identifying Supply and Demand Elasticities of Agricultural Commodities: Implications for the US Ethanol Mandate," NBER Working Papers 15921, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Roman Keeney & Thomas W. Hertel, 2009. "The Indirect Land Use Impacts of United States Biofuel Policies: The Importance of Acreage, Yield, and Bilateral Trade Responses," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(4), pages 895-909.
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