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Modelling the impact of the ‘Fast Track’ land reform policy on Zimbabwe’s maize sector

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  • Kapuya, T.
  • Meyer, Ferdinand H.
  • Kirsten, Johann F.

Abstract

This paper attempts to analyze the impacts of the ‘fast track’ land reform policy on maize production in Zimbabwe through the construction of a partial equilibrium model that depicts what could have happened if no further policy shifts had taken place after 2000. The resimulated baseline model was used to make projections based on the various trends of exogenous variables in 2000. This means that the model generated an artificial data set based on what the maize market would have looked like under a set of the pre-2000 existent policy conditions. The ‘fast track’ land reform policy was thus assessed based on the performance of the baseline model using a range of “what if” assumptions. Commercial area harvested was 39 % less than what could have been harvested in 2001, and declining by negative 80.57 % in 2007. Results showed total maize production was 61.85 % and 43.88 % less than what could have been produced in the 2002 and 2005 droughts, respectively. This may imply that droughts would have been less severe if the ‘fast track’ land reform was not implemented. Therefore, the ‘fast track’ land reform had a negative effect on maize production. Thus, the econometric model system developed provided a basis through which the effects of the FTLRP on the maize market may be analyzed and understood.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE) & Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA) in its series 2010 AAAE Third Conference/AEASA 48th Conference, September 19-23, 2010, Cape Town, South Africa with number 95958.

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Date of creation: Sep 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaae10:95958

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Keywords: ‘fast track’ land reform programme; partial equilibrium model; maize; Zimbabwe; Crop Production/Industries; Land Economics/Use;

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  1. van Tongeren, Frank & van Meijl, Hans & Surry, Yves, 2001. "Global models applied to agricultural and trade policies: a review and assessment," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 149-172, November.
  2. J Thurlow & Merle Holden, 2002. "The Impact of the Eu-Sa Free Trade Agreement on Selected Comesa Countries," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 70(2), pages 133-144, 03.
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