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World cereals markets under alternative common agricultural policy reforms
[Les marchés mondiaux des céréales sous les propositions de la réforme de la politique agricole commune]

Author

Listed:
  • Catherine C. Benjamin

    (ESR - Unité de recherche d'Économie et Sociologie Rurales - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique)

  • Chantal Guéguen

    (UR - Université de Rennes)

  • Magalie Houée Bigot

    (ESR - Unité de recherche d'Économie et Sociologie Rurales - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique)

Abstract

Les précédentes évaluations quantitatives des impacts de la réforme de la politique agricole commune (notamment l'Agenda 2000) diffèrent selon les études empiriques. Les différences sont principalement dues à la représentation des instruments de politiques agricoles (modélisation explicite ou modélisation implicite des différents instruments i.e. utilisation d'équivalent ad valorem). L'objectif de l'article est d'évaluer empiriquement les impacts de la réforme de la politique agricole commune et les conséquences des propositions de la révision à mi-parcours sur les marchés mondiaux des céréales. Les auteurs développent un modèle économétrique dynamique d'équilibre partiel des marchés mondiaux des grandes cultures. Les principaux exportateurs et importateurs sont modélisés de façon séparée, les autres pays étant considérés dans un agrégat "reste du monde". Dans chaque modèle régional, un système d'offre, les équations de demande et les équations d'échanges sont estimés. L'originalité du modèle qu'ils développent porte sur plusieurs points : les paramètres estimés dans les équations de comportement (offre et demande) respectent la théorie économique sous-jacente et les instruments de politique agricole (en particulier la PAC) sont représentés explicitement. La section empirique se concentre sur le marché mondial des céréales. Les auteurs présentent les résultats de simulations jusqu'en 2009 selon trois scénarios : le scénario de référence et deux scénarios basés sur différentes hypothèses de l'évolution de politique agricole commune (le scénario de la révision à mi-parcours et le scénario de découplage). Les effets estimés du scénario de la révision à mi-parcours sur les prix des produits en Union européenne dépendent de la relation entre les prix de marchés mondiaux et européens.

Suggested Citation

  • Catherine C. Benjamin & Chantal Guéguen & Magalie Houée Bigot, 2003. "World cereals markets under alternative common agricultural policy reforms [Les marchés mondiaux des céréales sous les propositions de la réforme de la politique agricole commune]," Post-Print hal-02831935, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02831935
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02831935
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    References listed on IDEAS

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