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World Cereals Markets Under Alternative Common Agricultural Policy Reforms

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  • Benjamin, Catherine
  • Gueguen, Chantal
  • Houee, Magalie
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    Abstract

    Previous quantitative assessments of likely impacts of recent reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy (in particular the Agenda 2000) differ across empirical studies. Differences are mainly due to the ways the policy instruments are taken into account (explicit modeling or implicit modeling i.e. using ad-valorem equivalents). The aim of this paper is to assess empirically the impacts of recent reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy and the consequences of the Mid-Term proposals on world cereals markets. We develop an econometric, dynamic, multi-product, partial equilibrium commodity model that focuses on arable crops. Major exporters and major importers are modeled separately, other countries being included in a "rest of the world" category. For the countries or regions explicitly integrated the model estimates supply, demand and trade. The model we develop has two important features: i) the parameters estimated in the behavioral equations (supply and demand) satisfy regularity conditions and ii) the agricultural policy instruments (in particular CAP instruments) are modeled in an explicit way. In the empirical section, attention focuses on the world cereals market. We provide a market outlook through the year 2009 for three different scenarios: baseline projections and two scenarios based on different assumptions regarding the evolution of the Common Agricultural Policy (the Mid-Term Review scenario and the decoupling scenario). Estimated effects of the mid-term scenario on EU crop prices depend on the relationship between EU and world market prices.

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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25913
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa with number 25913.

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    Date of creation: 2003
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae03:25913

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    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy;

    References

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    1. Bruce A. Babcock & John C. Beghin & Samarendu Mohanty & Frank H. Fuller & Jacinto F. Fabiosa & Sudhir Chaudhary & Phillip Kaus & Cheng Fang & Chad E. Hart & Karen Kovarik, 1999. "Analysis of the Berlin Accord Reforms of the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 99-bp24, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    2. Coyle, Barry T., 1993. "On Modeling Systems Of Crop Acreage Demands," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 18(01), July.
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    Cited by:
    1. Roberto ESPOSTI & Antonello LOBIANCO, 2005. "Modelling the Impact of 2003 CAP Reform on Crop Production. The Case of Durum Wheat in Italy," Working Papers 232, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    2. Listorti, Giulia & Esposti, Roberto, 2008. "Making the world market price endogenous within the AGMEMOD modelling framework: an econometric solution," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6659, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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