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Trade growth in a heterogeneous firm model: Evidence from South Eastern Europe

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  • d'Artis Kancs

    (London School of Economics and Catholic University of Leuven)

Abstract

In 2007 a Free Trade Area (BFTA) will be created in the Balkans. In this paper we study the potential impact of BFTA on trade growth in the SEE. Given that welfare impacts associated with trade growth depend on the growth channels, more goods and varieties exported or at higher price or higher volume of goods and varieties are exported, in this paper we investigate the structure of integration-induced export growth in the Balkans. The empirical implementation of our analysis is complicated by the fact that firm-level trade data is not available for the SEE economies. In order to cope with this data paucity, we adopt a heterogeneous firm framework, which allows us to decompose the aggregate trade growth in two parts: the intensive margin of trade and the extensive margin of trade using only aggregate trade data. The empirical findings of our study suggest that the BFTA would primarily trigger trade growth through a growing number of exported goods (the extensive margin of trade).Thus, the actual welfare gains from trade growth in the Balkans might be larger than predicted by previous trade studies. We also found that a variable trade cost reduction would lead to higher export growth rates compared to a fixed trade cost reduction. These results allow us to draw detailed policy conclusions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales in its series Working Papers with number 07-09.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:aee:wpaper:0709

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Keywords: Balkans; export growth; regional integration; trade costs;

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References

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  1. Andrew B. Bernard & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2007. "Comparative Advantage and Heterogeneous Firms," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(1), pages 31-66.
  2. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2009. "How important is the new goods margin in international trade?," Staff Report 324, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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  8. Andrew B Bernard & Jonathan Eaton & J. Bradford Jensen & Samuel Kortum, 2000. "Plants and productivity in international trade," Working Papers 00-08, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  9. Head, Charles Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2003. "The Empirics of Agglomeration and Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 3985, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2006. "Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," DEGIT Conference Papers c011_022, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  11. Hillberry, Russell H. & McDaniel, Christine A., 2002. "A Decomposition of North American Trade Growth since NAFTA," Working Papers 15866, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Economics.
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  13. Russell Hillberry & David Hummels, 2005. "Trade Responses to Geographic Frictions: A Decomposition Using Micro-Data," NBER Working Papers 11339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," NBER Working Papers 10480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Paul R. Bergin & Reuven Glick, 2005. "Tradability, Productivity, and Understanding International Economic Integration," NBER Working Papers 11637, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Vasily Astrov, 2001. "Structure of Trade in Manufactured Products Between Southeast European Countries and the European Union," The wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 014, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
  17. Roberts, Mark J & Tybout, James R, 1997. "The Decision to Export in Colombia: An Empirical Model of Entry with Sunk Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 545-64, September.
  18. Thomas Chaney, 2008. "Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1707-21, September.
  19. David Hummels & Peter J. Klenow, 2005. "The Variety and Quality of a Nation's Exports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 704-723, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Rosa Capolupo, 2012. "Economic Transition and Regional Growth: The Case of Albania and Comparator SEECs," Transition Studies Review, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 529-549, March.
  2. Kancs, d'Artis & Ciaian, Pavel, 2008. "Factor Content of Agricultural Trade," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44458, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  3. Ciaian, Pavel & Kancs, d'Artis & Pokrivcak, Jan, 2011. "Comparative Advantages, Transaction Costs and Factor Content in Agricultural Trade: Empirical Evidence from the CEE - Vantaggi comparati, costi di transazione e contenuto dei fattori nel commercio agr," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 64(1), pages 67-101.
  4. Ackerman Maarten & Charlotte du Toit, 2001. "A supply side approach for estimating a Neo-classical fixed investment model for the South African economy," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2001_05, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  5. d’Artis Kancs & Pavel Ciaian, 2012. "The Factor Content of Heterogeneous Firm Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 373-393, 03.
  6. d’Artis Kancs, 2009. "Structural Estimation of Variety Gains from Trade Integration in Asia," Working Papers 2009.7, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.

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