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The Economic Situation In Poland Through The Prism Of The Situation In The Enterprises On The Basis Of The Business Tendency Survey

In: ENTERPRISES IN UNSTABLE ECONOMY

Author

Listed:
  • Micha³ Bernardelli

    (Collegium of Economic Analyses, Warsaw School of Economics, Poland)

Abstract

In this paper the procedure of an analysis of the result of the questions of business tendency surveys in industry conducted monthly by the Research Institute for Economic Development in Warsaw School of Economics is described. The procedure is based on hidden Markov models with conditional normal distributions and uses algorithms such as Baum-Welch algorithm, Viterbi algorithm and Monte Carlo simulations. There were considered models with two-state, three-state and four-state Markov chains. The aim of the study was to analyze the relationship between the opinions of the respondents about the current and the future economic situation in the enterprise against the official indications of the economic situation in Poland. As a reference time series the OECD dating of the turning points for Poland was used. For the more accurate analysis the results of the survey were also confronted with hard economic data in form of the sold production in industry (in constant prices). Knowing the accuracy of respondents’ opinion and official nowcasting and forecasting calculations, from the researchers’ and decision-makers’ point of view it could allowed to build the companies’ profile and from the companies’ point of view to make the more reasonable plans related with the production.

Suggested Citation

  • Micha³ Bernardelli, 2015. "The Economic Situation In Poland Through The Prism Of The Situation In The Enterprises On The Basis Of The Business Tendency Survey," GUT FME Conference Publications, in: Blazej Prusak (ed.),ENTERPRISES IN UNSTABLE ECONOMY, chapter 10, pages 109-136, Faculty of Management and Economics, Gdansk University of Technology.
    • Handle: RePEc:gdk:chapte:11
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "Markov-Switching and the Ifo Business Climate: the Ifo Business Cycle Traffic Lights," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2010(2), pages 1-13.
    2. Sensier, Marianne & Artis, Michael & Osborn, Denise R. & Birchenhall, Chris, 2004. "Domestic and international influences on business cycle regimes in Europe," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 343-357.
    3. Peter Martey Addo & Monica Billio & Dominique Guegan, 2012. "Alternative Methodology for Turning-Point Detection in Business Cycle : A Wavelet Approach," Post-Print halshs-00694420, HAL.
    4. Michał Bernardelli, 2014. "Parallel deterministic procedure based on hidden Markov models for the analysis of economic cycles in Poland," Collegium of Economic Analysis Annals, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, issue 34, pages 75-87.
    5. Birchenhall, Chris R, et al, 1999. "Predicting U.S. Business-Cycle Regimes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(3), pages 313-323, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic situation; business tendency survey; company strategy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • M51 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Personnel Economics - - - Firm Employment Decisions; Promotions

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