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Structural change in the presence of network externalities: a co-evolutionary model of technological successions

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Author Info
Paul Windrum ()
Chris Birchenhall ()

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Abstract

The paper uses a two-stage, multi-agent simulation model to examine the conditions under which technological successions can occur in the presence of network externalities. Data is used to identify a robust econometric model of the probability of succession. Four key factors are identified. First, the trade-off between higher direct utility from new technology goods and the network utility of old technology goods. Second, the relative innovative performance of new and old technology firms. Third, cost (price) differentials due to increasing returns in production. Fourth, the time old (new) firms have to develop their product designs prior to entry. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin/Heidelberg 2005

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00191-004-0226-8
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Evolutionary Economics.

Volume (Year): 15 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (January)
Pages: 123-148
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Handle: RePEc:spr:joevec:v:15:y:2005:i:2:p:123-148

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Related research
Keywords: Succession; Demand; Innovation; Externalities; Sail ship effect;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Windrum,Paul, 2004. "Neo-Schumpeterian Simulation Models," Research Memoranda 002, Maastricht : MERIT, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology. [Downloadable!]
  2. Shy, Oz, 1996. "Technology revolutions in the presence of network externalities," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 785-800, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Simon Hall & Mark Walsh & Anthony Yates, . "How do UK companies set prices?," Bank of England working papers 67, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  4. Sin, Chor-Yiu & White, Halbert, 1996. "Information criteria for selecting possibly misspecified parametric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 207-225. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. David, Paul A, 1985. "Clio and the Economics of QWERTY," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 332-37, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Klepper, Steven, 1996. "Entry, Exit, Growth, and Innovation over the Product Life Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 562-83, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Sensier, Marianne & Artis, Michael & Osborn, Denise R. & Birchenhall, Chris, 2004. "Domestic and international influences on business cycle regimes in Europe," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 343-357. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Liebowitz, S J & Margolis, Stephen E, 1990. "The Fable of the Keys," Journal of Law & Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 1-25, April.
  9. Katz, Michael L & Shapiro, Carl, 1986. "Technology Adoption in the Presence of Network Externalities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(4), pages 822-41, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Birchenhall, Chris R & Osborn, Denise R & Sensier, Marianne, 2001. "Predicting UK Business Cycle Regimes," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(2), pages 179-95, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Giorgio Fagiolo & Paul Windrum & Alessio Moneta, 2006. "Empirical Validation of Agent Based Models: A Critical Survey," LEM Papers Series 2006/14, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  2. Vanessa OLTRA (GREThA UMR CNRS 5113), 2008. "Environmental innovation and industrial dynamics: the contributions of evolutionary economics," Cahiers du GREThA 2008-28, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kevin Marechal & Hélène Aubaret-Joachain & Jean-Paul Ledant, 2008. "The influence of Economics on agricultural systems: an evolutionary and ecological perspective," Working Papers CEB 08-028.RS, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Centre Emile Bernheim (CEB). [Downloadable!]
  4. Albert Faber & Koen Frenken, 2008. "Models in evolutionary economics and environmental policy: Towards an evolutionary environmental economics," Innovation Studies Utrecht (ISU) working paper series 08-15, Utrecht University, Department of Innovation Studies, revised Apr 2008. [Downloadable!]
  5. Kemp, R. & van den Bergh, J., 2006. "Economics and Transitions: Lessons from Economic Sub-disciplines," UNU-MERIT Working Paper Series 038, United Nations University, Maastricht Economic and social Research and training centre on Innovation and Technology. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh & Giorgos Kallis, 2009. "Evolutionary Policy," Papers on Economics and Evolution 2009-02, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Evolutionary Economics Group. [Downloadable!]
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