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Tracking Unemployment in Wales through Recession and into Recovery

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  • Michael Artis
  • Marianne Sensier
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    Abstract

    This paper assesses turning points in the economic cycle of Welsh unitary authorities by applying a mathematical algorithm to the claimant count unemployment data. All but one unitary authority has now emerged from recession (Anglesey being the exception). We also date the business cycle for the UK and country-level employment data and Wales has emerged from recession but Scotland is yet to exit recession. We estimate a logistic model which utilises housing sector and survey data to forecast the Welsh employment cycle. The model predicts that employment in Wales will continue to grow into 2011.

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    File URL: http://www.spatialeconomics.ac.uk/textonly/SERC/publications/download/sercdp0079.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE in its series SERC Discussion Papers with number 0079.

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    Date of creation: Apr 2011
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    Handle: RePEc:cep:sercdp:0079

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    Web page: http://www.spatialeconomics.ac.uk/SERC/publications/default.asp

    Related research

    Keywords: classical business cycles; forecasting;

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    1. M Sensier & M Artis & C R Birchenhall & D R Osborn, 2002. "Domestic and International Influences on Business Cycle Regimes in Europe," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0202, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    2. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
    3. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "Dating Business Cycles: A Methodological Contribution with an Application to the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(4), pages 537-565, 09.
    4. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "A comparison of two business cycle dating methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1681-1690, July.
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