IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/regstd/v50y2016i4p586-599.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Resilience of Employment in Wales: Through Recession and into Recovery

Author

Listed:
  • Marianne Sensier
  • Michael Artis

Abstract

S ensier M. and A rtis M. The resilience of employment in Wales: through recession and into recovery, Regional Studies . The dimensions of resilience of the Welsh employment cycle are assessed. The Welsh economy has undergone reorientation and renewal since the deep crisis of the 1980s and it was more resistant than the UK for the 1990s' crisis and has recovered its pre-recession peak for the most recent crisis. To visualize the regional spread of the most recent recession in Wales, turning points in unitary authority unemployment claims are dated and a series of maps show when Welsh authorities entered recession. It is found that the housing sector and manufacturing survey data are the best predictors of the Welsh employment cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Marianne Sensier & Michael Artis, 2016. "The Resilience of Employment in Wales: Through Recession and into Recovery," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 586-599, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:50:y:2016:i:4:p:586-599
    DOI: 10.1080/00343404.2014.920083
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00343404.2014.920083
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00343404.2014.920083?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sensier, Marianne & Artis, Michael & Osborn, Denise R. & Birchenhall, Chris, 2004. "Domestic and international influences on business cycle regimes in Europe," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 343-357.
    2. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "A comparison of two business cycle dating methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1681-1690, July.
    3. Christina Beatty & Steve Fothergill, 2011. "The prospects for worklessness in Britain's weaker local economies," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 4(3), pages 401-417.
    4. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    5. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    6. Stefan P. T. Groot & J. L. Möhlmann & J. H. Garretsen & Henri L. F. de Groot, 2011. "The crisis sensitivity of European countries and regions: stylized facts and spatial heterogeneity," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 4(3), pages 437-456.
    7. Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer, 2001. "Earnings, unemployment, and housing in Britain," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 203-220.
    8. Susan Christopherson & Jonathan Michie & Peter Tyler, 2010. "Regional resilience: theoretical and empirical perspectives," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 3(1), pages 3-10.
    9. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "Dating Business Cycles: A Methodological Contribution with an Application to the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(4), pages 537-565, September.
    10. Strauss, Jack, 2013. "Does housing drive state-level job growth? Building permits and consumer expectations forecast a state’s economic activity," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 77-93.
    11. Paul Gregg & Jonathan Wadsworth, 2010. "Employment in the 2008–2009 recession," Economic & Labour Market Review, Palgrave Macmillan;Office for National Statistics, vol. 4(8), pages 37-43, August.
    12. Canova, Fabio, 1994. "Detrending and turning points," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 614-623, April.
    13. Sara Davies, 2011. "Regional resilience in the 2008--2010 downturn: comparative evidence from European countries," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 4(3), pages 369-382.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hennebry Barraí, 2020. "The determinants of economic resilience in rural regions. An examination of the Portuguese case," Miscellanea Geographica. Regional Studies on Development, Sciendo, vol. 24(1), pages 24-29, January.
    2. Sensier, Marianne & Devine, Fiona, 2020. "Understanding Regional Economic Performance And Resilience In The Uk: Trends Since The Global Financial Crisis," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 253, pages 18-28, August.
    3. Otegui Banno, Santiago & Calá, Carla Daniela & Niembro, Andrés, 2023. "Resiliencia y recuperación de las regiones argentinas ante las crisis económicas: el papel de la estructura industrial y de la competitividad regional," Nülan. Deposited Documents 3914, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales, Centro de Documentación.
    4. Marianne Sensier & Fiona Devine, 2020. "Levelling up Regional Resilience Following the Coronavirus Pandemic," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2008, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    5. Linus Holtermann & Christian Hundt, 2018. "Hierarchically structured determinants and phase related patterns of economic resilience. An empirical case study for European regions," Working Papers on Innovation and Space 2018-02, Philipps University Marburg, Department of Geography.
    6. Marianne Sensier & Michael Artis, 2016. "The Resilience of UK Regional Employment Cycles," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 229, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    7. Marianne Sensier & Elvira Uyarra, 2020. "Investigating the Governance Mechanisms that Sustain Regional Economic Resilience and Inclusive Growth," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2005, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    8. Cristian Delgado‐Bello & Andrés Maroto Sáchez & Miguel Atienza Ubeda, 2023. "Resilience and economic structure: The case of the Chilean regions during the Asian crises and the Great Recession of 2008," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(1), pages 31-51, February.
    9. Juntao Tan & Kevin Lo & Fangdao Qiu & Wenxin Liu & Jing Li & Pingyu Zhang, 2017. "Regional Economic Resilience: Resistance and Recoverability of Resource-Based Cities during Economic Crises in Northeast China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-15, November.
    10. Meiyue Li & Xiaowen Wang, 2022. "How Regions React to Economic Crisis: Regional Economic Resilience in a Chinese Perspective," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(4), pages 21582440221, December.
    11. Liping Liao & Minzhe Du & Jie Huang, 2022. "The Effect of Urban Resilience on Residents’ Subjective Happiness: Evidence from China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-19, October.
    12. Jorge Chica‐Olmo & Marina Checa‐Olivas, 2021. "Spatial impact of factors influencing the achievement of the Europa2020 employment targets," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(3), pages 633-649, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hasan Engin Duran & Ugo Fratesi, 2023. "Economic resilience and regionally differentiated cycles: Evidence from a turning point approach in Italy," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(2), pages 219-252, April.
    2. Marianne Sensier & Michael Artis, 2016. "The Resilience of UK Regional Employment Cycles," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 229, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    3. Yongsung Chang & Sunoong Hwang, 2015. "Asymmetric Phase Shifts in U.S. Industrial Production Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(1), pages 116-133, March.
    4. Michael Artis & Marianne Sensier, 2011. "Tracking Unemployment in Wales through Recession and into Recovery," SERC Discussion Papers 0079, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Paolo Di Caro, 2015. "Recessions, recoveries and regional resilience: evidence on Italy," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 8(2), pages 273-291.
    6. L.A. Gil-Alana, 2005. "Fractional Cyclical Structures & Business Cycles in the Specification of the US Real Output," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 99-126.
    7. Louise Holm, 2016. "The Swedish business cycle, 1969-2013," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2015(2), pages 1-22.
    8. Beate Schirwitz & Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "Regional business cycles in Germany - the dating problem," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(14), pages 24-31, July.
    9. Agnieszka Gehringer & Thomas Mayer, 2021. "Measuring the Business Cycle Chronology with a Novel Business Cycle Indicator for Germany," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(1), pages 71-89, April.
    10. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2008. "Do European business cycles look like one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2165-2190, July.
    11. Jing Xiao & Ron Boschma & Martin Andersson, 2018. "Resilience in the European Union: the effect of the 2008 crisis on the ability of regions in Europe to develop new industrial specializations," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 27(1), pages 15-47.
    12. Chang‐Jin Kim & James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2005. "Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 291-309.
    13. Gatfaoui, Jamel & Girardin, Eric, 2015. "Comovement of Chinese provincial business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 294-306.
    14. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Lorena Saiz & Universidad de Murcia, 2006. "Do european business cycles look like one $\_?$," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 175, Society for Computational Economics.
    15. Monica Billio & Massimiliano Caporin & Guido Cazzavillan, 2008. "Dating EU15 monthly business cycle jointly using GDP and IPI," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2007(3), pages 333-366.
    16. Beate Schirwitz, 2013. "Business Fluctuations, Job Flows and Trade Unions - Dynamics in the Economy," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 47.
    17. Monica Billio & Jacques Anas & Laurent Ferrara & Marco Lo Duca, 2007. "A turning point chronology for the Euro-zone," Working Papers 2007_33, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    18. Beate Schirwitz, 2009. "A comprehensive German business cycle chronology," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 287-301, October.
    19. Medhioub, Imed, 2007. "Asymétrie des cycles économiques et changement de régimes : cas de la Tunisie," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(4), pages 529-553, décembre.
    20. Craigwell, Roland & Maurin, Alain, 2007. "A sectoral analysis of Barbados’ GDP business cycle," MPRA Paper 33428, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:50:y:2016:i:4:p:586-599. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/CRES20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.