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Learning to forecast, risk aversion, and microstructural aspects of financial stability

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  • Biondo, Alessio Emanuele

Abstract

This paper presents a simulative model of a financial market, based on a fully operating order book with limit and market orders. The heterogeneity of traders is characterized not only with regards to their trading rules, but also by introducing a behavioral individual risk aversion and a learning ability influencing the process of expectations formation. Results show that individual learning may play a role in stabilizing the aggregate market dynamics, whereas the risk aversion has, counterintuitively, the opposite effect.

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  • Biondo, Alessio Emanuele, 2018. "Learning to forecast, risk aversion, and microstructural aspects of financial stability," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 12, pages 1-21.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifweej:201820
    DOI: 10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2018-20
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    2. Guy Maugis, Pierre-André, 2019. "Paradigm shifts," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 13, pages 1-9.
    3. Alessio Emanuele Biondo, 2019. "Order book modeling and financial stability," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(3), pages 469-489, September.
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    5. Kononovicius, Aleksejus & Ruseckas, Julius, 2019. "Order book model with herd behavior exhibiting long-range memory," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 171-191.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    order book; learning to forecast; risk aversion; agent-based models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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