IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/soecon/v70y2003i2p344-358.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Cointegration Model of Age‐Specific Fertility and Female Labor Supply in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Robert McNown

Abstract

Cointegration methods suitable for estimation and testing with nonstationary data are applied to U.S. time‐series data on age‐specific fertility rates, female labor force participation rates, women's wages, unemployment rates and educational attainment, and male relative incomes. Likelihood ratio tests indicate the existence of two cointegrating relations that are identified as a fertility equation and a labor supply equation, respectively. Estimated long‐run relations are consistent with economic models of fertility and female labor market behavior, and these results are robust across both age‐groups and several alternative model specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert McNown, 2003. "A Cointegration Model of Age‐Specific Fertility and Female Labor Supply in the United States," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 70(2), pages 344-358, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:soecon:v:70:y:2003:i:2:p:344-358
    DOI: 10.1002/j.2325-8012.2003.tb00574.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/j.2325-8012.2003.tb00574.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/j.2325-8012.2003.tb00574.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kohler, Hans-Peter, 2001. "Fertility and Social Interaction: An Economic Perspective," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199244591.
    2. Barbara Devaney, 1983. "An analysis of variations in U. S. fertility and female labor force participation trends," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 20(2), pages 147-161, May.
    3. Benjamin Cheng, 1996. "An investigation of cointegration and causality between fertility and female labour force participation," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 29-32.
    4. Gary S. Becker, 1981. "A Treatise on the Family," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number beck81-1, May.
    5. Wang, Ping & Yip, Chong K & Scotese, Carol A, 1994. "Fertility Choice and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(2), pages 255-266, May.
    6. Butz, William P & Ward, Michael P, 1979. "The Emergence of Countercyclical U.S. Fertility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 318-328, June.
    7. Mocan, Naci H, 1990. "Business Cycles and Fertility Dynamics in the United States: A Vector Autoregressive Model," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 3(2), pages 125-146, August.
    8. George Hondroyiannis & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2002. "Demographic transition and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Greece," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 15(2), pages 221-242.
    9. Diane J. Macunovich, 1998. "Fertility and the Easterlin hypothesis: An assessment of the literature," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 53-111.
    10. Willis, Robert J, 1973. "A New Approach to the Economic Theory of Fertility Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages 14-64, Part II, .
    11. Harbo, Ingrid, et al, 1998. "Asymptotic Inference on Cointegrating Rank in Partial Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 388-399, October.
    12. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    13. R. E. Bailey & M. J. Chambers, 1993. "Long‐Term Demographic Interactions in Precensus England," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 156(3), pages 339-362, May.
    14. Olsen, Randall J, 1994. "Fertility and the Size of the U.S. Labor Force," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 60-100, March.
    15. Abeysinghe, Tilak, 1991. "On Testing Easterlin's Hypothesis Using Relative Cohort Size as a Proxy for Relative Income: An Analysis of Canadian Data," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 4(1), pages 53-69, March.
    16. Sprague, Alison, 1988. "Post-war Fertility and Female Labour Force Participation Rates," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(392), pages 682-700, September.
    17. Winegarden, Calman R, 1984. "Women's Fertility, Market Work and Marital Status: A Test of the New Household Economics with International Data," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 51(204), pages 447-456, November.
    18. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-328, August.
    19. Abeysinghe, Tilak, 1993. "Time Cost, Relative Income and Fertility in Canada," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 6(2), pages 189-198, May.
    20. Gary S. Becker & Robert J. Barro, 1988. "A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 103(1), pages 1-25.
    21. Dickey, David A & Pantula, Sastry G, 1987. "Determining the Ordering of Differencing in Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 455-461, October.
    22. John Ermisch, 1988. "Econometric Analysis of Birth Rate Dynamics in Britain," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 23(4), pages 563-576.
    23. Diane J. Macunovich, 1995. "The Butz-Ward Fertility Model in the Light of More Recent Data," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30(2), pages 229-255.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Junjian Yi & Junsen Zhang, 2010. "The Effect Of House Price On Fertility: Evidence From Hong Kong," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(3), pages 635-650, July.
    2. Paraskevi Salamaliki & Ioannis Venetis & Nicholas Giannakopoulos, 2013. "The causal relationship between female labor supply and fertility in the USA: updated evidence via a time series multi-horizon approach," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 109-145, January.
    3. George Hondroyiannis, 2010. "Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty: An Assessment Using European Panel Data," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 33-50, March.
    4. Jeon, Yongil & Shields, Michael P., 2008. "The Impact of Relative Cohort Size on U.S. Fertility, 1913-2001," IZA Discussion Papers 3587, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Bloom, D.E. & Luca, D.L., 2016. "The Global Demography of Aging," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 3-56, Elsevier.
    6. Martin Dribe & Maria Stanfors, 2009. "Education, Work and Parenthood: Comparing the Experience of Young Men and Women in Sweden," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 32-42, March.
    7. Ridao-Cano, Cristobal & McNown, Robert, 2005. "The effect of tax-benefit policies on fertility and female labor force participation in the United States," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1083-1096, December.
    8. Zuluaga Díaz, Blanca Cecilia & Gamboa Niño, Luis Fernando & Jaramillo Flechas, Luis Eduardo, 2017. "Economic conditions and birth spacing in Colombia: a semi-parametric approach," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 87, pages 97-123, March.
    9. Angela Luci-Greulich & Olivier Thévenon, 2014. "Does Economic Advancement ‘Cause’ a Re-increase in Fertility? An Empirical Analysis for OECD Countries (1960–2007)," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 30(2), pages 187-221, May.
    10. Alberto Cazzola & Lucia Pasquini & Aurora Angeli, 2016. "The relationship between unemployment and fertility in Italy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 34(1), pages 1-38.
    11. Martin Werding, 2014. "Children are costly, but raising them may pay," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(8), pages 253-276.
    12. Thirunaukarasu Subramaniam & Nanthakumar Loganathan & Evelyn S. Devadason, 2018. "Determinants Of Female Fertility In Asean-5: Empirical Evidence From Bounds Cointegration Test," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 63(03), pages 593-618, June.
    13. Pan, Jiun-Nan & Yang, Yan-Jie, 2020. "The impact of economic uncertainty on the decision of fertility: Evidence from Taiwan," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    14. Marcén, Miriam & Molina, José Alberto & Morales, Marina, 2018. "The effect of culture on the fertility decisions of immigrant women in the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 15-28.
    15. Larry E. Jones & Michele Tertilt, 2006. "An Economic History of Fertility in the U.S.: 1826-1960," NBER Working Papers 12796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Héctor Bellido & Miriam Marcén, 2019. "Fertility and the business cycle: the European case," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 1289-1319, December.
    17. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    18. Alicia Adsera, 2011. "Where Are the Babies? Labor Market Conditions and Fertility in Europe [Où sont les bébés ? Conditions du marché du travail et fécondité en Europe]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 27(1), pages 1-32, February.
    19. Francesca Modena & Concetta Rondinelli & Fabio Sabatini, 2014. "Economic Insecurity and Fertility Intentions: The Case of Italy," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(S1), pages 233-255, May.
    20. Adriaan Kalwij, 2010. "The impact of family policy expenditure on fertility in western Europe," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 47(2), pages 503-519, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:soecon:v:70:y:2003:i:2:p:344-358. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)2325-8012 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.