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Fertility Choice and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence

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  • Wang, Ping
  • Yip, Chong K
  • Scotese, Carol A

Abstract

This paper examines a growth model with endogenous consumption, labor-leisure, and fertility. A fertility choice variable capturing both the quality and quantity of the family size enters the utility function positively but also generates time costs. Theoretical comparative dynamic results are derived for changes in exogenous production and utility parameters. Employing post-World War II U.S. data, the authors estimate the model using a structural vector autoregression with imposed long-run restrictions based on the theoretical predictions. The empirical results lend support to the endogeneity of fertility choice and present dynamic responses of each endogenous variable to employment, fertility, and output shocks. Copyright 1994 by MIT Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics & Statistics.

Volume (Year): 76 (1994)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 255-66

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:76:y:1994:i:2:p:255-66

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Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/

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Cited by:
  1. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1996. "Empirical tests to discern the dynamic causal chain in macroeconomic activity: new evidence from Thailand and Malaysia based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error-correction modeling approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 531-560, October.
  2. Dalton Conley & Gordon C. McCord & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 2007. "Africa's Lagging Demographic Transition: Evidence from Exogenous Impacts of Malaria Ecology and Agricultural Technology," NBER Working Papers 12892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Masih, A. Mansur M. & Masih, Rumi, 2002. "Propagative causal price transmission among international stock markets: evidence from the pre- and postglobalization period," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 63-91.
  4. Petrucci, Alberto, 2003. "Money, endogenous fertility and economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 527-539, December.
  5. Pietro Peretto & Simone Valente, 2011. "Growth on a Finite Planet: Resources, Technology and Population in the Long Run," Working Papers 11-12, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  6. Dierk Herzery & Holger Strulik & Sebastian Vollmer, 2010. "The Long-run Determinants of Fertility: One Century of Demographic Change 1900-1999," PGDA Working Papers 6310, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  7. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2001. "Demographic changes, labor effort and economic growth: empirical evidence from Greece," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 169-188, February.
  8. Charles H. Mullin & Ping Wang, 2002. "The Timing of Childbearing among Heterogeneous Women in Dynamic General Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 9231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Palivos, Theodore, 1995. "Endogenous fertility, multiple growth paths, and economic convergence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1489-1510, November.
  10. Masih, Rumi & Masih, Abul M. M., 1996. "Macroeconomic activity dynamics and Granger causality: New evidence from a small developing economy based on a vector error-correction modelling analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 407-426, July.
  11. Ralph Z. Wang, 2005. "Optimum Population Growth with CIES Preference in the Infinite- Horizon Ramsey Model," Labor and Demography 0507007, EconWPA.
  12. Justin Doran, 2012. "An analysis of the interdependence of demographic factors, labour effort and economic growth in Ireland," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 39(3), pages 221-237, March.
  13. Ken-ichi Hashimoto & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2007. "Does Pro-population Policy Raise Per Capita Consumption?," ISER Discussion Paper 0697, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  14. George Hondroyiannis, 2009. "Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty:An Assessment Using European Panel Data," Working Papers 96, Bank of Greece.
  15. Abul M. M. Masih & Rumi Masih, 1997. "Bivariate and Multivariate Tests of Money-Price Causality: Robust Evidence from a Small Developing Country," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(6), pages 803-825.
  16. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2005. "Fertility and output in Europe: new evidence from panel cointegration analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 143-156, March.

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