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Demographic transition and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Greece

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Author Info

  • George Hondroyiannis

    ()
    (Bank of Greece, Economic Research Department, El. Venizelou 21,102 50 Athens, Greece, and Harokopio University)

  • Evangelia Papapetrou

    ()
    (University of Athens, El. Venizelou 21,102 50 Athens, Greece and Bank of Greece, Economic Research Department)

Abstract

Over the past decades, due to a combination of declining fertility rates and rising life expectancies, most industrialized countries have experienced aging populations and low numbers of young populations that may pose economic problems in the future. This paper investigates the relationship first between fertility rate and infant mortality rate and second among demographic changes, real wages and real output in Greece over the period 1960-96. When we control for fluctuations in overall economic activity and the labor market on the bivariate relationship between fertility and mortality rates, the evidence suggests that Granger-causation must exist in at least one direction. The results show that in the long run a decrease in infant mortality rates, taking into consideration economic performance and the labor market, causes a reduction in fertility rates. Also, employing the vector error-correction models, the variance decomposition analysis and the impulse response functions, the empirical results support the endogeneity of fertility choice to infant mortality, the labor market and the growth process.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Population Economics.

Volume (Year): 15 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 221-242

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Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:15:y:2002:i:2:p:221-242

Note: Received: 16 May 1999/Accepted: 18 September 2000
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Related research

Keywords: Fertility · infant mortality · VECM;

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Cited by:
  1. Daniel Mejía & María Teresa Ramírez & Jorge Tamayo, . "The Demographic Transition in Colombia: Theory and Evidence," Borradores de Economia 538, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. George Hondroyiannis, 2009. "Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty:An Assessment Using European Panel Data," Working Papers 96, Bank of Greece.
  3. Frini, Olfa & Muller, Christophe, 2012. "Demographic transition, education and economic growth in Tunisia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 351-371.
  4. Danut-Vasile JEMNA, 2011. "Demographic transition and economic growth in Romania," THE YEARBOOK OF THE “GH. ZANE” INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC RESEARCHES, Gheorghe Zane Institute for Economic and Social Research ( from THE ROMANIAN ACADEMY, JASSY BRANCH), vol. 20(2), pages 103-112.
  5. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2005. "Fertility and output in Europe: new evidence from panel cointegration analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 143-156, March.
  6. Čobanović, Katarina & Nikolić-Đorić, Emilija & Mutavdžić, Beba, 2007. "Relation of Socio-Economic and Demographic Factors in Rural Development of Serbia," 100th Seminar, June 21-23, 2007, Novi Sad, Serbia and Montenegro 162339, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  7. Francisco Climent Diranzo & Robert Meneu Gaya, . "Relaciones de equilibrio entre demografía y crecimiento económico en España," Studies on the Spanish Economy 163, FEDEA.

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