IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jmoncb/v53y2021i1p73-94.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Generalized Stability of Monetary Unions Under Regime Switching in Monetary and Fiscal Policies

Author

Listed:
  • DENNIS BONAM
  • BART HOBIJN

Abstract

Earlier studies on the stability of monetary unions show that an inflation‐targeting central bank imposes strict budgetary requirements on fiscal policy to obtain a unique stable equilibrium. Failure of only one fiscal authority to meet these requirements already results in nonexistence of equilibrium. Nevertheless, it might prove useful to temporarily depart from such requirements in order to absorb country‐specific shocks. We show that such departures are feasible if fiscal authorities commit to switch to more sustainable fiscal regimes in the future. Debt devaluation and fiscal bailouts may also broaden the range of policy stances under which monetary unions are stable.

Suggested Citation

  • Dennis Bonam & Bart Hobijn, 2021. "Generalized Stability of Monetary Unions Under Regime Switching in Monetary and Fiscal Policies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(1), pages 73-94, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:53:y:2021:i:1:p:73-94
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12699
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12699
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jmcb.12699?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francesco Bianchi & Cosmin Ilut, 2017. "Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agent's Beliefs," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 26, pages 113-139, October.
    2. Aldama, Pierre & Creel, Jérôme, 2019. "Fiscal policy in the US: Sustainable after all?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 471-479.
    3. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo, 2013. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions: interdependent policy rule coefficients," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Bank for International Settlements, 2011. "The impact of sovereign credit risk on bank funding conditions," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 43, december.
    5. Cho, Seonghoon & McCallum, Bennett T., 2015. "Refining linear rational expectations models and equilibria," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 160-169.
    6. Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Müller, Gernot J. & Wolf, Martin, 2019. "Exit expectations and debt crises in currency unions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    7. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 2013. "Are banks too big to fail or too big to save? International evidence from equity prices and CDS spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 875-894.
    8. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca & Jarociński, Marek & Maćkowiak, Bartosz & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2019. "Macroeconomic stabilization, monetary-fiscal interactions, and Europe's monetary union," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 22-33.
    9. Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(3), pages 381-399.
    10. Andreas Schabert & Sweder J G van Wijnbergen, 2014. "Sovereign Default and the Stability of Inflation-Targeting Regimes," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(2), pages 261-287, June.
    11. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2007. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 607-635, June.
    12. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-1311, July.
    13. Ms. Edda Zoli, 2013. "Italian Sovereign Spreads: Their Determinants and Pass-through to Bank Funding Costs and Lending Conditions," IMF Working Papers 2013/084, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Narayana R. Kocherlakota & Christopher Phelan, 1999. "Explaining the fiscal theory of the price level," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 23(Fall), pages 14-23.
    15. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_009 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Dennis Bonam & Jasper Lukkezen, 2019. "Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination, Macroeconomic Stability, and Sovereign Risk Premia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(2-3), pages 581-616, March.
    17. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad T. Diba, 2001. "Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1221-1238, December.
    18. Alexander Popov & Neeltje van Horen, 2013. "The impact of sovereign debt exposure on bank lending: Evidence from the European debt crisis," DNB Working Papers 382, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    19. Xiaoshan Che & Eric M. Leepe & Campbell Leith, 2015. "US Monetary and Fiscal Policies - conflict or cooperation?," Working Papers 2015_14, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    20. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2009. "Understanding Markov-switching rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(5), pages 1849-1867, September.
    21. Francesco Bianchi, 2012. "Evolving Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 167-172, May.
    22. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7suq9gqkp186e8d6eou29dipgk is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Paul R. Bergin, 2017. "Fiscal Solvency and Price Level Determination in a Monetary Union," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 12, pages 343-362, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    24. Yoosoon Chang & Boreum Kwak, 2017. "U.S. Monetary-Fiscal Regime Changes in the Presence of Endogenous Feedback in Policy Rules," CAEPR Working Papers 2017-016, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    25. Daniel, Betty C. & Shiamptanis, Christos, 2013. "Pushing the limit? Fiscal policy in the European Monetary Union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2307-2321.
    26. Chen, Xiaoshan & Leeper, Eric M. & Leith, Campbell, 2015. "US Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Conflict or Cooperation?," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-77, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Schmidt, Sebastian & Mackowiak, Bartosz, 2022. "Passive Monetary Policy and Active Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 17034, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Bonam, Dennis & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Gomes, Sandra & Aldama, Pierre & Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Buss, Ginters & da Costa, José Cardoso & Christoffel, Kai & Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Jacquinot, Pasc, 2024. "Challenges for monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the post-pandemic era," Occasional Paper Series 337, European Central Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dennis Bonam & Bart Hobijn, 2021. "Generalized Stability of Monetary Unions Under Regime Switching in Monetary and Fiscal Policies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(1), pages 73-94, February.
    2. Dennis Bonam & Jasper Lukkezen, 2019. "Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination, Macroeconomic Stability, and Sovereign Risk Premia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(2-3), pages 581-616, March.
    3. Leeper, E.M. & Leith, C., 2016. "Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary–Fiscal Phenomenon," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2305-2415, Elsevier.
    4. Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Müller, Gernot J. & Wolf, Martin, 2019. "Exit expectations and debt crises in currency unions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    5. Fan, Jingwen & Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong, 2016. "The role of fiscal policy in Britain's Great Inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 203-218.
    6. Canzoneri, Matthew & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 2010. "The Interaction Between Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 17, pages 935-999, Elsevier.
    7. McClung, Nigel, 2020. "E-stability vis-à-vis determinacy in regime-switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    8. Neusser, Klaus, 2019. "Time–varying rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    9. Barthélemy, Jean & Marx, Magali, 2017. "Solving endogenous regime switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1-25.
    10. Howard Kung & Gonzalo Morales & Alexandre Corhay, 2017. "Fiscal Discount Rates and Debt Maturity," 2017 Meeting Papers 840, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Daniel, Betty C. & Shiamptanis, Christos, 2012. "Fiscal risk in a monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1289-1309.
    12. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Díaz-Roldán, Carmen & Esteve, Vicente, 2009. "Deficit sustainability and inflation in EMU: An analysis from the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 525-539, December.
    13. Wolf, Martin & Müller, Gernot & Kriwoluzky, Alexander, 2013. "Currency Risk in Currency Unions," CEPR Discussion Papers 9635, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Hinterlang, Natascha & Hollmayr, Josef, 2022. "Classification of monetary and fiscal dominance regimes using machine learning techniques," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/644vfdaim38frrvbit4u0bh0ha is not listed on IDEAS
    16. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(3), pages 565-615.
    17. Ascari, Guido & Florio, Anna & Gobbi, Alessandro, 2018. "High trend inflation and passive monetary detours," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 138-142.
    18. Bennett T. Mccallum, 2003. "Is The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level Learnable?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(5), pages 634-649, November.
    19. Francesco Bianchi & Cosmin Ilut, 2017. "Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agent's Beliefs," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 26, pages 113-139, October.
    20. Jérôme Creel & Henri Sterdyniak, 2001. "La théorie budgétaire du niveau des prix, un bilan critique," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 111(6), pages 909-939.
    21. Eric M. Leeper & Campbell Leith, 2016. "Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary-Fiscal Phenomenon," NBER Working Papers 21867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:53:y:2021:i:1:p:73-94. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.